Goldman Sachs, ons alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 4.500 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken y\u0131l\u0131 5.400 dolar seviyesinde tamamlama hedefini korudu. Ons alt\u0131n, ocak ay\u0131 sonlar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 5.600 dolarla rekor g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Marttaki sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n (h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar dar bir aral\u0131kta yatay seyretti (konsolide oldu).<\/p>\n
Banka, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemesini bekliyor. Bu y\u0131l al\u0131mlar\u0131n ayl\u0131k ortalama 60 ton olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu seviye, mart ay\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 12 ayl\u0131k hareketli ortalama olan 50 tonun \u00fczerinde. (Hareketli ortalama: Fiyat ya da miktardaki dalgalanmay\u0131 yumu\u015fatmak i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015f verilerin ortalamas\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, k\u00fcresel tahvil faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesi ve enflasyon beklentilerinin artmas\u0131 nedeniyle zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Raporda, piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa alt\u0131n\u0131n nakde \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilece\u011fi de belirtiliyor. (Piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131: Likiditenin azalmas\u0131, fonlaman\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131. Likidite: Piyasada varl\u0131klar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve ciddi fiyat kayb\u0131 olmadan paraya \u00e7evrilebilmesi.)<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) nisan ay\u0131nda 8 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131; bu, Aral\u0131k 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye. Alt\u0131n, \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9\u2019unu olu\u015fturuyor. (D\u00f6viz rezervi: \u00dclkenin elinde tuttu\u011fu yabanc\u0131 para ve benzeri varl\u0131klar.)<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 244 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131; bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3 art\u0131\u015f. Ayn\u0131 veriler, \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7inde baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n da artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesinin nedeni, marttaki sert sat\u0131\u015ftan sonra fiyat\u0131n 4.500 dolar \u00e7evresinde yatay kalmas\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin yak\u0131n zamanda %4,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gibi y\u00fckselen k\u00fcresel tahvil faizleri, alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 daha az cazip hale getiriyor. (Faiz getirisi olmayan: Tahvil gibi d\u00fczenli faiz \u00f6demesi sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131k.) Bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in temkinli olunmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. (Pozisyon: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n piyasada ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fc ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc.)<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, hisse piyasalar\u0131nda dalgalanma artarsa alt\u0131n\u0131n nakit ihtiyac\u0131 i\u00e7in sat\u0131labilece\u011fini de dikkate almas\u0131 gerekiyor. S&P 500 endeksinin son haftalarda dalgal\u0131 seyri s\u00fcrerken, belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda likidite kaynakl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu durum k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk yarat\u0131yor. (Likidite kaynakl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f: Zarar\u0131na da olsa h\u0131zl\u0131 nakde d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f.)<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, kurumsal talep (b\u00fcy\u00fck fonlar ve merkez bankalar\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli al\u0131c\u0131lar) nedeniyle alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelik temel destek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 244 ton al\u0131m yapt\u0131; bu, 2025\u2019in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re %3 art\u0131\u015f. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlar\u0131n fiyat i\u00e7in bir \u201ctaban\u201d olu\u015fturmas\u0131 bekleniyor. (Fiyat taban\u0131: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin s\u0131n\u0131rlanabildi\u011fi destek b\u00f6lgesi.)<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir al\u0131c\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Nisan ay\u0131nda 8 ton daha ekleyerek toplam alt\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9\u2019una \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu al\u0131mlar, 2025 boyunca h\u0131zlanan \u201cdolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131la\u015fma\u201d e\u011filimiyle de uyumlu. (Dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131la\u015fma: \u00dclkelerin rezerv ve ticarette dolara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131p alt\u0131n ve di\u011fer para birimlerine y\u00f6nelmesi.) Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 talep, uzun vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli zay\u0131fl\u0131k ile uzun vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm aras\u0131ndaki fark, opsiyon i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunuyor. Y\u0131l sonu y\u00fckseli\u015finden yararlanmak amac\u0131yla, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonuna vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Opsiyon: Belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma ya da satma hakk\u0131. Al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call: Fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen t\u00fcr.) Bununla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde daha iyi maliyetle giri\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olu\u015fabilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in 5.400 dolar hedefi piyasada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviye olmaya devam ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025 sonlar\u0131ndaki yatay seyirden sonra ocakta 5.600 dolar civar\u0131na uzanan ralliye (h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) benzetiliyor. Mevcut dinamikler, benzer bir s\u00fcrecin yeniden olu\u015fabilece\u011fini; bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f hareketinde ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler 5.400 dolarda: Goldman Sachs, 4.500 dolardaki yatay seyre ra\u011fmen y\u0131l sonu hedefini koruyor. K\u0131sa vadede faiz bask\u0131s\u0131, uzun vadede merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 destek. \u00c7in\u2019in al\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46917"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46917\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}