Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; referans g\u00f6sterge olan TTF, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcren riskler nedeniyle 50 EUR\/MWh seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u00fckseli\u015f, sabah erken saatlerdeki i\u015flemlerde de devam etti.<\/p>\n
Arz endi\u015feleri, olas\u0131 bir aksaman\u0131n gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fi Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne (\u0130ran, Irak ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lge) ba\u011fl\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n, olas\u0131 arz etkilerini fiyatlara tam yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Asyal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden gelebilecek s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli sevkiyatlar\u0131n (\u00f6nceden anla\u015fmayla ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f teslimatlar) aksamas\u0131 halinde bunu telafi etmek i\u00e7in spot piyasaya (an\u0131nda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yap\u0131lan piyasa) y\u00f6nelebilir. Bu durum, spot LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) i\u00e7in Asya ile Avrupa al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki rekabeti art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
AB gaz depolama seviyesinin %36 dolu oldu\u011fu, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n ise %50 oldu\u011fu bildirildi. Haberde, metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi notu yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa gaz piyasas\u0131nda yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u015fareti zay\u0131f. Hollanda TTF kontrat\u0131 50 EUR\/MWh seviyesini a\u015farak piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etti. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin s\u00fcrmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re gaz piyasas\u0131, Basra K\u00f6rfezi kaynakl\u0131 ciddi arz kesintisi ihtimalini h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, LNG ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyebilir. Bu riskin, mevcut vadeli fiyatlara (ileride teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan fiyatlama) tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Asyal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n, b\u00f6lgeden gelebilecek s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli sevkiyatlar\u0131n aksamas\u0131 durumunda spot piyasaya girmesi muhtemel. Bu, Asya ve Avrupa aras\u0131nda LNG i\u00e7in do\u011frudan rekabeti art\u0131rarak k\u00fcresel fiyatlar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Asya spot LNG primi olan JKM g\u00f6stergesi (Asya\u2019da spot LNG i\u00e7in referans fiyat), Avrupa fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2 $\/mmBtu (milyon \u0130ngiliz \u0131s\u0131 birimi ba\u015f\u0131na dolar; gaz fiyatlamas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan birim) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da rekabetin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
AB gaz depolamas\u0131 \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %68 seviyesinde; bu olumlu. Ancak daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar nedeniyle son haftalarda depolara gaz basma h\u0131z\u0131 (enjeksiyon; depolara gaz ekleme) yava\u015flad\u0131. Bu tempo, 2025\u2019te ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 dolumun gerisinde kal\u0131yor. Bu da olas\u0131 bir arz \u015foku (ani ve b\u00fcy\u00fck arz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc) durumunda, kritik k\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi dolum d\u00f6nemine daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u201ctampon\u201dla (g\u00fcvenlik pay\u0131) girilmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
2025 ilkbahar\u0131nda piyasa, \u0131l\u0131man k\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 stoklar\u0131n yeniden olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na ve arz\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 olmas\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc jeopolitik tablo, temelden farkl\u0131 ve daha dalgal\u0131 bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 riski ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2026 yaz sonu ve k\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin vadeli fiyat e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki fiyatlar\u0131n genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 kontratlarla i\u015flem yapanlar), fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Q3 ve Q4 (3. ve 4. \u00e7eyrek) kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel sunarken, belirsiz piyasada riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: Avrupa gaz\u0131nda jeopolitik fiyat \u015foku kap\u0131da. TTF 50 EUR\/MWh\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131; Basra K\u00f6rfezi arz riski tam fiyatlanm\u0131yor. Asya spot LNG\u2019ye kayarsa rekabet artar, k\u0131\u015f e\u011frisi yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46916"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46916\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}