EUR\/USD 1,18\u2019den 1,16\u2019ya geriledi, ancak ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu durum, faizler ve hisse piyasalar\u0131 \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem) ortam\u0131na girerken ve SG Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k G\u00f6stergesi (piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) d\u00fc\u015ferken ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re bunun nedeni, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201cay\u0131\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) beklentisi ve piyasalar\u0131n birden fazla politika ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatlamas\u0131. Buna, bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalinin de kayda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi dahil.<\/p>\n
Raporda, ABD faiz e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n (yak\u0131n vadeli faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan b\u00f6l\u00fcm) h\u00e2l\u00e2 ECB\u2019den 3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) 2,5 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u201cfiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (piyasa fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131) belirtiliyor. Bu da zay\u0131flayan duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen euroya destek veriyor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca EUR\/USD\u2019nin daha net bir trende girmesinin, faiz beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fene kadar zor olabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Avrupa\u2019da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi sorgulan\u0131rsa veya FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 (Fed\u2019in toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) ABD\u2019nin faiz yoluna (gelecek faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na) ili\u015fkin beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftirirse.<\/p>\n
Raporda, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) dolar lehine \u201cuzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle tutulan pozisyonlar) yeniden azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 da not ediliyor. Bu durum, olas\u0131 dolar y\u00fckseli\u015flerini yava\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n
O d\u00f6nemki analiz, kurun kal\u0131c\u0131 hareketi i\u00e7in \u00f6nce faiz beklentilerinin de\u011fi\u015fmesi gerekti\u011fine dayan\u0131yordu; y\u0131llar i\u00e7inde de bu dinamik g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Faiz fark\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131: Fed politika faizi %5,25-%5,50 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, ECB mevduat faizi (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttu\u011fu paraya uygulanan faiz) %4,00 seviyesinde. ABD enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermeye devam ederken Fed beklemede kal\u0131yor; ECB ise Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131yor. CFTC verileri (ABD\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 raporlayan kurumun verisi), euroda spek\u00fclatif net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n euroda toplu y\u00fckseli\u015f bahislerinin) d\u00fczenli \u015fekilde azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi ya da en az\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015flerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 senaryosuna uygun stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) veya ay\u0131 call spread kurmak (y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle opsiyon stratejisi) ve 1,07\u2019ye do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rlanmak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,18\u2019den 1,16\u2019ya indi; riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ve zay\u0131f duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 euroyu tutuyor. Trend i\u00e7in beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fmeli. Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla euro longlar\u0131 azal\u0131yor; 1,07 riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46915\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}