Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD tahvil getirileri (yani tahvilin faizi) \u201cbear steepening\u201d (k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, uzun vadeli faizlerin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi; bu da uzun vadeli tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015fmesi) hareketiyle, petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte y\u00fckseldi. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri d\u00f6rt g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; bu, Temmuz 2007\u2019den bu yana ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Temmuz 2026\u2013Haziran 2027 d\u00f6neminde 32 baz puan (bp; faizde %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da o aral\u0131kta Fed\u2019in bir kez daha faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalinin biraz \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Odak, mevcut getiri seviyelerinde al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden devreye girip girmeyece\u011fine kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili ihalesi, uzun vade sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacak. Pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak TIC verileri (Treasury International Capital; yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD menkul k\u0131ymet al\u0131m-sat\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ak\u0131mlar) Mart ay\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yabanc\u0131 talebi \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in takip edilecek.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik takvim sakin; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak Fed tutanaklar\u0131 (FOMC toplant\u0131 \u00f6zeti) haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi olabilir. Tutanaklar, metin diline \u00fc\u00e7 \u201c\u015fahin\u201d itiraz\u0131n (\u015fahin: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz isteyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) geldi\u011fi bir toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tutanaklara ek olarak Waller, Paulson ve Barr\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131 da takvimde.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fcksek getirilerin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 enflasyonla do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131; enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 sorun. Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI; t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7 art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fcksek seyrin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, 2025 sonundaki \u201cFed yak\u0131nda faiz indirecek\u201d beklentisinin tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa, gelecek y\u0131l Haziran\u2019dan \u00f6nce en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da fiyatlamak zorunda kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi MOVE Endeksi (tahvil piyasas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgesel banka stresinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere y\u00fckseldi. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirsizlikten faydalanan stratejileri (\u00f6r. b\u00fcy\u00fck tahvil ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde opsiyon almak; opsiyon: belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn, ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) de\u011ferlendirmesine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k ihale, bu daha y\u00fcksek faiz seviyelerinde talebin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterecek kritik bir s\u0131nav olacak.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, y\u00fcksek faizlerin yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi \u00e7ekmesi nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek veriyor. Dolar\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (g\u00fcvercin: faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha isteksiz, daha gev\u015fek politika e\u011filimli) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. Bu nedenle, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki (USD\/JPY long) t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetlerinde ise kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizler, de\u011feri uzak gelecek k\u00e2rlara dayanan teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri i\u00e7in daha olumsuz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar portf\u00f6ylerini korumak i\u00e7in teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma\/gelir ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu hafta yay\u0131mlanacak Fed tutanaklar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek; i\u00e7eride \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n teyidi, faize duyarl\u0131 bu hisselerde yeni bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD tahvillerinde bear steepening: 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri d\u00f6rt g\u00fcn %5+\u2019ta. Piyasa 2026-27\u2019de 32 bp ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor. 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k ihale, Fed tutanaklar\u0131 ve MOVE; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, teknoloji bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46914\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}