USD\/CHF, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6rt i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,2 y\u00fckseldikten sonra pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc duraklad\u0131. Parite g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; geri \u00e7ekilmeler 0,7850\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutuldu ve fiyat iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 0,7877\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artt\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klamalarda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na da de\u011finilmesi, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan talebi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/CHF, d\u00fc\u015fen takoz formasyonunun (genelde k\u0131r\u0131lma sonras\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini i\u015faret eden, s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan fiyat yap\u0131s\u0131) \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 4 saatlik grafikte RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131, 70 \u00fcst\u00fc a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m, 30 alt\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden gerileyerek 60\u2019a yak\u0131n. MACD histogram\u0131 (momentumu g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa pozitif ivmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Destek, may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131 zirveleri olan 0,7845 civar\u0131nda ve 0,7835 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki ters trend \u00e7izgisinde (\u00f6nceki e\u011filimin tersine \u00e7izilen y\u00f6n \u00e7izgisi) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00f6lgelerin alt\u0131na sarkma, y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve 0,7800 civar\u0131ndaki 13-14 May\u0131s diplerini g\u00fcndeme getirir.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 ilk olarak g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirve 0,7877\u2019de. Bunun \u00fczerinde 0,7925\u20130,7930 band\u0131 var; bu b\u00f6lge 13 ve 29 Nisan zirveleriyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki makas) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla daha belirgin. Fed, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi %5,25\u2019te tutuyor; son T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi enflasyonu %3,1 g\u00f6sterdi. SNB ise ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatt\u0131 ve politika faizi %1,25\u2019e indi. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki teknik k\u0131r\u0131lmadan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir belirleyici.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta %1,4 a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu, SNB\u2019ye ilave faiz indirimi i\u00e7in geni\u015f alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor; bu da USD\/CHF i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Bu tabloyla parite ge\u00e7en y\u0131l konu\u015fulan 0,7900 seviyelerinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131; g\u00fcncel spot fiyat (anl\u0131k piyasa fiyat\u0131) 0,9120 civar\u0131nda. Bu noktada y\u00f6n\u00fc temel fakt\u00f6rler belirliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ivme s\u00fcrerken, sert dalgalanma yerine kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in haziran ya da temmuz vadeli opsiyonlarla (belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u201cbull call spread\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentili, bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir: 0,9150 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p 0,9250 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131p riskin \u00e7er\u00e7evesini \u00e7izmek gibi. Bu y\u00f6ntem, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Daha temkinli olan ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn faiz fark\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan, \u015fu an kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 avantajl\u0131 olmayan opsiyon) satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. 0,9000 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 temmuz vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, SNB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funun (faiz indirimine yatk\u0131n politika) parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011fu beklentisine dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF\u2019te ralliye mola: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 artarken dolar talebi zay\u0131flad\u0131, 0,7850 \u00fcst\u00fc korunuyor. Teknikte takoz k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; 0,7877 diren\u00e7, 0,7845\u20130,7835 destek. Fed-SNB faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46911\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}