Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.770 dolardan gelen d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde yatay seyretti. Fiyat, piyasalar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 izlemesi ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin haberlere odaklanmas\u0131yla dengelendi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ranl\u0131 ve Ummanl\u0131 teknik ekipler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fin yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00f6ntemleri ele al\u0131rken, Washington ve Tahran da bir bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi (devletin 10 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma getirisini g\u00f6steren oran) %4,60 ile son bir y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde seyretti. Enflasyonun h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik veriler, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) 2026 sonu veya 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde (grafik ve g\u00f6stergelere dayal\u0131 analiz), XAU\/USD ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 geriledikten sonra k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korudu. 4 saatlik RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda kald\u0131. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama; trendin y\u00f6n\u00fc ve momentumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ise negatif b\u00f6lgede seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7ubuklar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ivme kaybedebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Destek 4.500 dolar civar\u0131nda, bir sonraki seviyenin 4.350 dolar (26 Mart dip seviyesi) oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Diren\u00e7 4.560 dolar civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 4.640 dolar seviyesinde; daha yukar\u0131da 4.770 dolardaki zirveler izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131; bu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor seviyedir. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u015fu anda 4.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor, ancak birden fazla cepheden bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) cazibesini azalt\u0131yor. Bu da metali as\u0131l olumsuz fakt\u00f6re, yani y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131na daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %4,60 ile bir y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131 unsuru; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc alt\u0131n faiz getirisi olmayan (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi bulunmayan) bir varl\u0131kt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7en ayki T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) %3,9 gelmesi gibi enflasyon verileri sonras\u0131 piyasa, 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu, 2025 sonunda faiz indirimlerinin konu\u015fuldu\u011fu d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re belirgin bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimidir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ilerlemesiyle jeopolitik risk primi (risk d\u00f6nemlerinde fiyata eklenen \u201cg\u00fcven\u201d pay\u0131) zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fi sa\u011flayacak bir anla\u015fman\u0131n do\u011frulanmas\u0131, mevcut destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu, diplomatik ilerlemelerin alt\u0131na olan acil talebi azaltmas\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclen klasik bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f olsa da merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 fiyat i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturabilir. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 290 ton daha alt\u0131n ekleyerek 2022\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 talep, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015flatabilir ve 4.350 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc teknik sinyaller ve makro bask\u0131lar nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri dikkate alabilir. 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesi halinde, 4.500\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) etkili olabilir. Daha yava\u015f bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekleyenler i\u00e7in, 4.640 dolar direnci civar\u0131nda tavan\u0131 olan \u201cbear call spread\u201d (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) daha dengeli bir risk-getiri sunabilir.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli olas\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mdaki RSI takip ediliyor; bu t\u00fcr bir toparlanma, yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha iyi bir giri\u015f seviyesi verebilir. 4.560 dolar direncinin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit eder. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek bir tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: 4.500! XAU\/USD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 yatay; ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. %4,60\u2019l\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi ve \u015fahin Fed beklentisi bask\u0131, 4.350 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46907\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}