IMF uzmanlar\u0131, mevcut enerji fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne g\u00f6re \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. 2026 i\u00e7in Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi; bu oran nisan ay\u0131ndaki %0,8 tahmininin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
IMF uzmanlar\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla %4\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda zirve yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Enflasyonun 2027 sonuna kadar %2 hedefe d\u00f6nmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
IMF, piyasa bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve uygulama risklerinin (planlar\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesinde gecikme\/ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle h\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (gelir-gider fark\u0131) azaltma hedefinden sapmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca finansal hizmetlerdeki d\u00fczenleme de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin toplam etkisinin, sistemin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (\u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 ayakta kalma g\u00fcc\u00fc) zay\u0131flatmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan emin olunmas\u0131 istendi.<\/p>\n
IMF a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sterlin\u2019de belirgin bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. Haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada GBP\/USD paritesi (Sterlin\/Dolar kuru) \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %0,23 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3355 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, piyasalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen tabloyu destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en ay Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu %3,8 a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, politika faizi (Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n belirledi\u011fi temel faiz oran\u0131) \u015fubattan bu yana %4,25\u2019te sabit. Bu nedenle en olas\u0131 senaryo, politikan\u0131n bir s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015fmemesi. Bu da piyasadaki fiyatlaman\u0131n \u20142026\u2019da ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmemesinin\u2014 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde do\u011fru oldu\u011funu ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011ferlenen vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, faizlerin yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. SONIA vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (Sterlin gecelik faizinin; SONIA\u2019n\u0131n, gelecekteki seviyesine dair vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme) Aral\u0131k 2026 vadede, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali fiyatlan\u0131yorsa bu kontratlarda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc strateji \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan (fiyat\u0131n sert dalgalanmamas\u0131) kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri de de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin taraf\u0131nda, ABD ile para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz ve politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) daha belirgin. BoE bekle-g\u00f6r konumundayken, ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7; daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) %3,5\u2019te y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olabilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. Bu fark, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3400 \u00fczerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; Sterlin\u2019de put opsiyonlar\u0131 (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) riskten korunma arac\u0131 olarak anlaml\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te hizmet enflasyonunun (\u00f6zellikle \u00fccret ve i\u00e7 talep kaynakl\u0131; kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) inat\u00e7\u0131 seyri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n beklenen faiz indirimlerini ertelemesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve piyasa haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun %2 hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 2027 sonunu bulacaksa, \u00fccret veya fiyat verilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler alg\u0131y\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu nedenle riski tan\u0131mlayan opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131, faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) do\u011frudan b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sa pozisyon almaya k\u0131yasla daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\u2019deki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki, g\u00fcvercin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn zaten piyasa beklentisi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; as\u0131l risk s\u00fcrpriz bir geli\u015fme. GBP\/USD\u2019de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 aya d\u00f6n\u00fck ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,5 seviyesinde; piyasa hareket bekliyor ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 stres fiyatlam\u0131yor. Bu ortam, sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften ziyade Sterlin\u2019in dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kademeli zay\u0131flamas\u0131na veya oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na (dalgalanman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc BoE\u2019yi bu y\u0131l faizde tutabilir; 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini %1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enflasyon 2026\u2019da %4\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken 2027\u2019de %2. Sterlin tepkisiz, Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46904\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}