TD Securities, \u00c7in\u2019in nisan ay\u0131 ekonomik verilerini zay\u0131f olarak de\u011ferlendirdi; bunu y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenine ba\u011flad\u0131. Kurum, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) **para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetme** (faiz indirimi, bankalara daha ucuz fonlama gibi ad\u0131mlar) konusunda temkinli kalmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kimya dahil geleneksel sekt\u00f6rler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ileti\u015fim ekipmanlar\u0131 ve ila\u00e7 gibi **y\u00fcksek teknoloji** alanlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve bu sayede olumsuz etkiyin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n telafi edildi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim dahil t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yava\u015f ve **iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcamalar** (zorunlu olmayan, \u00f6rne\u011fin e\u011flence\/seyahat gibi) geriliyor. \u201c618 festivali\u201d (\u00c7in\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck indirim d\u00f6nemi) ve eskiyi getir-yeniyi g\u00f6t\u00fcr tarz\u0131 **takas program\u0131** desteklerinin k\u0131sa vadeli katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, Pekin\u2019in geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir paket yerine **hedefli mali te\u015fvik** (devlet harcamalar\u0131\/vergi ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla belirli alanlar\u0131 destekleme) kullanmas\u0131n\u0131; oda\u011f\u0131n da daha \u00e7ok altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Zay\u0131f nisan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ihracat\u0131 desteklemeyi ama\u00e7layan **ticaret d\u00fczenlemeleri\/kurallar\u0131** (Board of Trade ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131) \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fi de eklendi.<\/p>\n
Son verilerin \u00c7in yuan\u0131 (CNY) lehine pozisyon alanlar\u0131 (CNY \u201cbo\u011falar\u0131\u201d) tedirgin edebilece\u011fi, ancak te\u015fvik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 da yeniden canland\u0131rabilece\u011fi belirtildi. TD Securities, PBoC\u2019nin USD\/CNY\u2019de 6,8 seviyesini savunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bunun da **d\u00f6viz zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131n (FX RRR)** 6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltilmesini i\u00e7erebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. (FX RRR: Bankalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz cinsinden belirli bir pay\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131nda \u201ckilitlemesi\u201d; art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 piyasadaki d\u00f6viz likiditesini s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir.)<\/p>\n
Nisan\u0131n zay\u0131f verileri, tan\u0131d\u0131k bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor: Resmi verilere g\u00f6re ge\u00e7en ay y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yaln\u0131zca %2,1 artan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi, piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131 bozuyor. Bu durumun, geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 te\u015fvik yerine hedefli devlet deste\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 2025 boyunca \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan **\u00f6zel devlet tahvillerinin** (hazine taraf\u0131ndan ihra\u00e7 edilen, belirli ama\u00e7larla kullan\u0131lan ekstra bor\u00e7lanma) altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131; benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n yeniden devreye girmesi bekleniyor. Te\u015fvik s\u00f6yleminin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm net olmasa bile yuana destek olabilir. Bu nedenle mevcut seviyelerden belirgin bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n
PBoC\u2019nin USD\/CNY paritesinde 6,8 seviyesini savunmaya kararl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de bu e\u015fi\u011fi s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde korudu\u011fu belirtildi. Dolar-yuan kuru \u015fu anda 7,23 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, yeni bir **psikolojik seviye**yi (piyasada \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nem verilen yuvarlak\/ana e\u015fik) savunma ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelmesi bekleniyor. FX RRR\u2019de olas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olur; yuan aleyhine pozisyon almay\u0131 (yuanda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynamay\u0131) daha maliyetli hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (de\u011feri kur gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, USD\/CNY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 yaratabilir. 6,8 savunma seviyesine yak\u0131n ya da biraz \u00fczerinde **kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131** (strike) **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak, **opsiyon primi** (sat\u0131\u015ftan elde edilen gelir) toplamak i\u00e7in cazip bir strateji olabilir. Bu pozisyon, merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n **oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131** (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) azaltaca\u011f\u0131 ve kurun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde sert bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de nisan verileri alarm veriyor: y\u00fcksek petrol ve zay\u0131f g\u00fcven b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131l\u0131yor. TD Securities, PBoC\u2019den temkinli gev\u015feme; Pekin\u2019den altyap\u0131 odakl\u0131 hedefli te\u015fvik ve USD\/CNY 6,8 savunmas\u0131 (FX RRR art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46903\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}