AUD\/JPY pazartesi 113,65 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,16 y\u00fckseldi. Paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fte Japon Yeni\u2019nin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 etkili olurken, zay\u0131f \u00c7in verileri Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha fazla de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de nisan Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,2 artt\u0131; beklenti %2, \u00f6nceki veri %1,7 idi. Sanayi \u00dcretimi (fabrika \u00fcretimi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1 y\u00fckseldi; %5,9 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Sabit Sermaye Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (altyap\u0131, gayrimenkul ve makine gibi uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,6 geriledi; piyasada %1,6 art\u0131\u015f bekleniyordu.<\/p>\n
Yen, risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 artan faturalar\u0131 \u00f6demek i\u00e7in daha fazla ABD Dolar\u0131 bulmak zorunda kal\u0131yor, bu da Yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ek b\u00fct\u00e7eyi finanse etmek i\u00e7in yeni bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve Yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Bu haber Japon tahvil faizlerini yukar\u0131 itti; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da Yen\u2019i zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
MUFG, Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD tahvil faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe, Japon Devlet Tahvillerindeki (JGB) de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ve olas\u0131 yeni bor\u00e7lanmaya ba\u011flad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca USD\/JPY yeniden 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rsa m\u00fcdahale riskinin artabilece\u011fini belirtti. (M\u00fcdahale: yetkililerin kurda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Yetkililer, uzun vadeli faizler dahil piyasalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlediklerini s\u00f6yledi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rarak finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131) beklentisi, kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyesi Kazuyuki Masu, sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon ve artan enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle faizlerin h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni\u2019ndeki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle, AUD\/JPY\u2019de \u015fimdilik y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f verilerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feyi g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu nedenle temkinli \u015fekilde \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) ta\u015f\u0131mak veya geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m aramak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uygulanabilir bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 belirgin. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 85 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bu durum Yen\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekleyen \u00f6nemli bir etken ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede tersine d\u00f6nmesi zor. Ayr\u0131ca Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizinin son d\u00f6nemde %1,0\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, yeni bor\u00e7lanmaya dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor; bu da para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki do\u011frudan kur m\u00fcdahaleleri, USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sert ve ani geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201copsiyon\u201d (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) kullanarak bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu almak (mevcut kurdan daha iyi bir seviyeden al\u0131m hakk\u0131; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket gerekir), beklenmedik bir Yen de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, BoJ\u2019dan daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) bir mesaj gelmesi. BoJ 2024\u2019te negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 bitirdikten sonra piyasa, normalle\u015fmenin h\u0131z\u0131na hassas hale geldi. Japonya enflasyonu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rsa daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi Yen\u2019i h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerini\u201d (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131 cephesinde ise g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00c7in ekonomisine ba\u011fl\u0131. \u00c7in sanayi \u00fcretimindeki %4,1\u2019e yava\u015flama, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir etken ve y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle AUD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmayabilir; ancak \u00c7in\u2019den gelecek olumlu bir hava de\u011fi\u015fimi bu hareketi ciddi bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY 113,65\u2019te y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken g\u00f6zler Yen\u2019de: Petrol ve ek b\u00fct\u00e7e bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 JPY\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f \u00c7in verileri AUD\u2019u frenliyor; geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m, m\u00fcdahale riskine dikkat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46901","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46901"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46901\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46901"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46901"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46901"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}