ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ABD tahvil faizlerindeki (devletin bor\u00e7lanma senetlerinden elde edilen getiri) y\u00fckseli\u015f USD\/JPY\u2019yi gece saatlerinde yeniden 159,00\u2019un \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve parite 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru ilerledi. ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerindeki art\u0131\u015f ve k\u00fcresel tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 (tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi) hareketi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, enerji fiyat \u015fokuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) birden fazla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma ihtimalini daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu durum ABD faizleri ve dolar \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da haberlere g\u00f6re Ba\u015fbakan Takaichi, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan ek b\u00fct\u00e7e haz\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 istedi; bunun yeni bor\u00e7 ihrac\u0131 (devletin yeni tahvil \u00e7\u0131kararak bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131) i\u00e7ermesi bekleniyor. Bu haber Japon devlet tahvillerinde (JGB: Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 devlet tahvilleri) zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yendeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019\u0131n ismini a\u00e7\u0131klamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkilisine g\u00f6re planlanan harcamalar\u0131n, ekonomik canland\u0131rmadan (ekonomiyi b\u00fcy\u00fctmek i\u00e7in te\u015fvik) \u00e7ok acil yard\u0131m ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmesi bekleniyor. Yeni bor\u00e7lanma planlar\u0131 JGB\u2019lerdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve USD\/JPY 160,00\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken yen i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Metinde, yen daha fazla zay\u0131flarsa h\u00fck\u00fcmetin para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in daha fazla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 haftaya yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek USD\/JPY paritesini 162,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Artan ABD faizleri ve enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n yeni \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrekli bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2025\u2019teki tabloyu hat\u0131rlatan bir seyir izleniyor. Temel g\u00f6stergeler (faiz fark\u0131 gibi ana ekonomik etkenler) yeniden yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son s\u0131\u00e7ramaya tepki veriyor. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasalar bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019in faiz indirmesi ihtimalini daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel tahvillerdeki sat\u0131\u015f ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizini yeniden %4,5\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da dolar\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD ve Japonya aras\u0131nda para politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki ayr\u0131\u015fma (faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) i\u015flemin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda yen, i\u00e7 dinamiklerle de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeni yard\u0131m ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in ek b\u00fct\u00e7e haz\u0131rlamas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin haberler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da borcun mill\u00ee gelire oran\u0131 (bor\u00e7\/GSYH: borcun ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne oran\u0131) %265\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yeni bir b\u00fct\u00e7enin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla yeni bor\u00e7 ihrac\u0131 gerektirece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu da Japon devlet tahvillerinde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 art\u0131rarak yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kurunu desteklemek i\u00e7in yeniden m\u00fcdahale (Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131) yapma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. USD\/JPY 165,00\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan ani ve sert ad\u0131m riski belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseliyor. T\u00fcrev (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, spot pozisyon (do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satma) ta\u015f\u0131mak yerine USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanman\u0131n daha kontroll\u00fc olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olas\u0131 zarar ba\u015ftan netle\u015fir (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131).<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f beklentisi (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz) ile s\u00fcrekli m\u00fcdahale ihtimali, yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bu, opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken call spread gibi stratejiler i\u00e7in de alan a\u00e7abilir. Call spread, bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satarak prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi hedefler; b\u00f6ylece USD\/JPY\u2019de belirli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f hedeflenirken \u00f6denen prim s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131rken ABD tahvil faizlerindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160-162 band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Petrol \u015foku Fed\u2019i daha \u015fahin k\u0131l\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da ek b\u00fct\u00e7e\/bor\u00e7 endi\u015fesi yeni bask\u0131, m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46896","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46896"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46896\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46896"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46896"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46896"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}