Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri, pazartesi Avrupa saatlerinde \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ancak 49.350 civar\u0131nda %0,56 ekside kald\u0131. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,23 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.410\u2019a inerken, Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri 29.240 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
Vadeli piyasalar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ranl\u0131 ve Ummanl\u0131 teknik ekiplerin ge\u00e7en hafta Umman\u2019da bir araya geldi\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geriledi. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in bir mekanizmaya (i\u015fleyi\u015f plan\u0131na) odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, gerilim artsa da ABD ile dolayl\u0131 diplomatik kanallar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin zorlu ilerledi\u011fini, ancak ileti\u015fimin kesilmedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nce, BAE ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik drone (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sonras\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi) temkinliydi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri se\u00e7enekleri g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere \u00fcst d\u00fczey ulusal g\u00fcvenlik dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131yla bir araya gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steren veriler, piyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l Federal Reserve\u2019den (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirimi beklentisini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n i\u015flemler yoluyla olu\u015fturdu\u011fu olas\u0131l\u0131k) aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nvidia bilan\u00e7osunu (\u015firketin d\u00f6nem k\u00e2r\u0131\/performans\u0131) bekliyor. Walmart ve Target sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da yak\u0131nda gelecek. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji fiyat \u015foku sonras\u0131 ABD t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 (hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131) yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u0130ran-Umman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair haberlerin, t\u0131rmanan gerilim kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda piyasalara k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bug\u00fcn tablo daha az keskin olsa da jeopolitik risk s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Brent petrol\u00fcnde \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz risk primi\u201d (arz kesintisi korkusuyla fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 8 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken, son haftalarda 2 dolar\u0131n biraz alt\u0131na geriledi. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu g\u00f6rece sakin d\u00f6nemde, olas\u0131 ani gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: portf\u00f6y\u00fc olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 sigortalama) amac\u0131yla enerji hisseleri veya petrol ETF\u2019leri (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) \u00fczerine daha uzun vadeli ve g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan i\u015flem hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l enflasyonun h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve bu art\u0131\u015flar 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda iki kez ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan son T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed hedefinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d (higher for longer) ortam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu senaryoda, uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde (\u00f6r. gayrimenkul veya kamu hizmetleri\/elektrik-do\u011falgaz gibi d\u00fczenlemeli \u015firketler) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan i\u015flem hakk\u0131) gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te Nvidia sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 rallisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir testti. Perakendeciler ise enerji \u015fokunun t\u00fcketici \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izlemede kritik g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Yapay zek\u00e2 temas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de t\u00fcketicide zay\u0131flama i\u015faretleri belirginle\u015fiyor: Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ge\u00e7en ay %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bu \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Bu durum, \u201c\u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem\u201d (pairs trade: bir varl\u0131kta al\u0131m, di\u011ferinde sat\u0131m yaparak g\u00f6reli performansa oynama) gibi t\u00fcrev temelli yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m (uzun pozisyon) yap\u0131l\u0131rken, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary: zorunlu olmayan harcama) ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131\u015f (k\u0131sa pozisyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Dow vadeli i\u015flemleri 2025\u2019teki belirsizlik d\u00f6neminde 49.350 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Bug\u00fcn 51.000 civar\u0131nda olsak da piyasa bu \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 seviyelerini (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran fiyat band\u0131) birka\u00e7 kez a\u015famad\u0131. Bu zay\u0131flayan ivme nedeniyle olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artarsa portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (VIX: korku endeksi) veya endeks put spread\u2019leri (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan korunma) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Wall Street vadeli i\u015flemlerinde kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k tablo: Dow y\u00fczde 0,56 ekside, S&P 500 gerilerken Nasdaq yatay. \u0130ran-Umman H\u00fcrm\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri petrol\u00fc bask\u0131l\u0131yor; Fed\u2019de \u201chigher for longer\u201d, Nvidia bilan\u00e7osu ve t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46889\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}