Alt\u0131n, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.550 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Jeopolitik belirsizlik ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti. Petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckselmesi, enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak ABD\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
BAE\u2019de Barakah N\u00fckleer Santrali\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik bir drone (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 yang\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, Irak\u2019tan f\u0131rlat\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 droneyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ise \u0130ran\u2019a anla\u015fma i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmesi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 abluka alt\u0131na almas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131, ham petrol\u00fc iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. CME Group FedWatch Tool (Vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalara bakarak Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131l\u0131k hesab\u0131 yapan g\u00f6sterge), yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, Hazine tahvili getirilerini (tahvillerin y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz getirisi) ve dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak FOMC Tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 (Fed\u2019in faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 notlar\u0131) ve bu hafta gelecek k\u00fcresel \u201cflash PMI\u201d verilerini izliyor. Flash PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi) erken a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergedir; ekonomik faaliyetin h\u0131zlan\u0131p yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair fikir verir. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) canl\u0131 tutarak alt\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Fiziki piyasalarda Hindistan\u2019daki iskontolar (yerel fiyat\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 fiyata g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131) ge\u00e7en hafta rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de ise primler (yerel fiyat\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 fiyata g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen bu unsurlar fiyatlar i\u00e7in net bir taban olu\u015fturmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, ge\u00e7en hafta 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama; belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalama fiyat) yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z deneme ve 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski art\u0131rabilir. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum\/ivme g\u00f6stergesi) 40\u2019a yak\u0131n ve MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama; trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) negatif b\u00f6lgede. Destek 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.352,59 dolarda, diren\u00e7 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.790,55 dolarda.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tablo ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 kuruyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, alt\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Put opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme), fiyat\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamaya do\u011fru gerilemesi senaryosundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in daha net bir ara\u00e7 sunar.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan WTI ham petrol\u00fcn (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil fiyat\u0131 110 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, y\u00fckselen petrol do\u011frudan enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 besliyor. Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u00fczde 3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bunun \u00fczerine FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 62\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini y\u00fczde 4,75\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutuyor; bu da alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini (alternatif kazan\u00e7tan vazge\u00e7me maliyeti) art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta 4.790 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu seviyenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d (diren\u00e7) haline geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu nedenle call opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131n\u0131 satan taraf olmak) veya bear call spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda call al\u0131p satarak kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) i\u00e7in uygun bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun hakk\u0131 kullanma fiyat\u0131) olabilir. 4.352 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131na i\u015faret ederek ilave sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 isteyen) yorumunu do\u011frulayacak ifadeler yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha mesafeli, daha gev\u015fek politikay\u0131 savunan) bir ton k\u0131sa vadeli bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya (short squeeze; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayanlar\u0131n pozisyon kapatmak i\u00e7in al\u0131ma zorlanmas\u0131yla h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) yol a\u00e7abilir. Ancak jeopolitik ve enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 olas\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ani oynakl\u0131k yaratabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 karar alabilen (esnek) kalmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda alarm zilleri: 4.550 dolar alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve petrol 110 dolarla enflasyon korkusunu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. 4.352 destek kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46888\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}