ABD Hazine tahvil faizleri, genel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda beklentileri a\u015fan ABD enflasyon verileri var. Nisan\u2019da nihai talep \u00dcFE (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) y\u0131ll\u0131k %6 ile 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faizlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve getiri e\u011frisindeki \u201cay\u0131 e\u011fimi\u201d (uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerinin k\u0131sa vadeli faizlere g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi) Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu, hemen bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmasa bile daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) bir mesaj verme ihtimalini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Tart\u0131\u015fma, nisan FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131 veren kurulu) toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve politikan\u0131n enflasyonun gerisinde kalabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesine dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019den gelecek ileti\u015fim ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 (toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) ve Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n yar\u0131n ve cuma yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmalar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Art\u0131\u015f ihtiyac\u0131na do\u011fru bir mesaj de\u011fi\u015fimi, getiri e\u011frisini yatayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir (k\u0131sa ve uzun vade faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131) ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri, riskli varl\u0131klar (hisse gibi dalgal\u0131 varl\u0131klar) i\u00e7in olumsuz, dolar i\u00e7in destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede 99,50 diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n zor a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) ve 99,00 civar\u0131 destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunabildi\u011fi seviye) olarak belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD devlet tahvili faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterek zorlu bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,95\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dalgal\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyeleri yeniden test etti. Faiz ve dolar\u0131n bu g\u00fcc\u00fc, di\u011fer varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ana etken, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon. Nisan\u2019da \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %6 artarak 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan bir h\u0131z sergiledi. Bu veri ve son T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisinin %5,2 gelmesi, Fed\u2019in \u201cgeride kalm\u0131\u015f\u201d olabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu da piyasan\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha sert bir duru\u015f sergilemesi gerekece\u011fine dair beklentilerini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Fed yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle Christopher Waller\u2019a odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Daha \u015fahin sinyal beklentisi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Tonun faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kaymas\u0131, dolar\u0131n son zirvelerin \u00fczerine h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
DXY \u015fu anda 99,50 civar\u0131ndaki direnci test ederken, olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmadan (direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u201cCall spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir al\u0131m opsiyonu alma ve daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) Fed\u2019in bu hafta \u015fahin mesaj vermesi halinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Bu, k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan bir stratejidir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, hisseler i\u00e7in de olumsuz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lar. Olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) ile S&P 500 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde korunma (hedge: mevcut riski dengelemek i\u00e7in al\u0131nan pozisyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu, 2022\u2019deki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen klasik savunmac\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131ma benzer.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a> ve hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon ABD tahvil faizlerini 2025 zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,95, \u00dcFE %6. \u201cAy\u0131 e\u011fimi\u201d Fed\u2019e \u015fahin bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; tutanaklar\/Waller izleniyor. DXY 99,50 direncinde, riskli varl\u0131klar bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46885\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}