USD\/JPY alt\u0131nc\u0131 g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve pazartesi Avrupa saatlerinde 158,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, Japon enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha pahal\u0131 enerji al\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in USD sat\u0131n almak \u00fczere y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda JPY satmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, \u0130ranl\u0131 ve Ummanl\u0131 teknik ekiplerin ge\u00e7en hafta Umman\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in bir mekanizmaya odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) yak\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini destekledi; bu da JPY\u2019de (yen) daha fazla zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Ge\u00e7en hafta BoJ y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyesi Kazuyuki Masu, sava\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya Kabine Ba\u015f Sekreteri Seiji Kihara, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin uzun vadeli faizler dahil piyasa hareketlerini \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir aciliyetle izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edip etmeyece\u011fi konusunda yorum yapmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi talebi) zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, artan gerilim ve zor bir diplomatik ortama ra\u011fmen ABD ile dolayl\u0131 ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn son bir ayd\u0131r varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla, Japon enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 talebinin USD\/JPY i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu temel etki (fiyat\u0131 etkileyen ana ekonomik neden), paritedeki son g\u00fcc\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir nedeni. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu durum BoJ i\u00e7in bir ikilem yarat\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,9 ile a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ay \u00fcst \u00fcste merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon, piyasada BoJ\u2019nin bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeni h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
159,00 civar\u0131ndaki seviye, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte yetkililerden sert tepkiler gelen b\u00f6lgeye giriyor; 2024\u2019te Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahalelerinde (d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkileme) bunu g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin artan aciliyet vurgusu, yeni almak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi riskinin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu seviyelerde uzun pozisyon (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) ta\u015f\u0131rken temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
Karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftaki zay\u0131f ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi, ABD ekonomisinde so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ettikten sonra dolar de\u011fer kaybetti. Buna Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131 eklenince, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Bu etken, paritede ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle, USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, piyasadaki y\u00fcksek belirsizli\u011fi g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, basit al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan) ya da sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan) almay\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getirir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunun yerine straddle veya strangle gibi stratejileri (fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir; bu t\u00fcr b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketler m\u00fcdahale ya da merkez bankas\u0131ndan s\u00fcrpriz bir ad\u0131mla tetiklenebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 158,90\u2019a dayand\u0131: Japon enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n dolar talebi ralliye yak\u0131t oluyor. Ancak petrol-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve 159\u2019da m\u00fcdahale riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken, zay\u0131f dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46884"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46884\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}