G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 d\u00fc\u015ferek ons ba\u015f\u0131na 76 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, alt\u0131n da yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 gerileyerek ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.500 ABD dolar\u0131na do\u011fru \u00e7ekildi. Bu hareket, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki d\u00fczeltmenin alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha sert oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015f; Trump\u2013\u015ei g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00f6ncesi pozisyon alma, sanayi metalleri fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve yapay zek\u00e2 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki hisse senedi y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin di\u011fer piyasalara yans\u0131mas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi. Ancak ABD tahvil faizleri ve ABD dolar\u0131 y\u00fckselince bu destek zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ithalat\u0131na getirdi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve i\u00e7 piyasadaki primi (yerel fiyat\u0131n k\u00fcresel fiyata g\u00f6re daha pahal\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131) art\u0131rabilir. Bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli talep taraf\u0131na ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretlerini de b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Tahvil faizleri (\u00f6zellikle ABD devlet tahvillerinin getirisini ifade eder) sakinle\u015fmedik\u00e7e veya petrol ve jeopolitik riskler daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) bir fiyatlamay\u0131 tetiklemeyi b\u0131rakmad\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik daha yap\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar olas\u0131 bir destek unsuru olabilir. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f en son 76 b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve RSI geriliyor. (RSI: A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6stergesi.)<\/p>\n
Destek seviyeleri 74,60, 70 ve 65 olarak veriliyor; 65 seviyesi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (200 DMA: 200 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131, uzun vadeli e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir) olarak i\u015faretleniyor. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 83,60 ve 90; 83,60 seviyesi %50 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesi (Fibonacci: Olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgelerini \u00f6l\u00e7mekte kullan\u0131lan oranlar) olarak not ediliyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ons ba\u015f\u0131na 76 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi, alt\u0131na g\u00f6re daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gerilemeye i\u015faret ediyor ve sanayi beklentilerine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Bu hareketin, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve tahvil faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015ften beslendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki son rallinin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k hazine tahvili faizinin %4,8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 (\u00f6r. g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f; kupon\/faiz \u00f6demez) daha az cazip hale getiriyor. Ayr\u0131ca ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 107 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, dolarla fiyatlanan t\u00fcm emtialar i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu makro bask\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 hisse y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin getirdi\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli spek\u00fclatif ilgiyi g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ralli, hisse piyasalar\u0131ndaki risk i\u015ftah\u0131na benzer bi\u00e7imde daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 risk alma e\u011filimiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Bu destek tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc; Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ithalat k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131yla talep taraf\u0131nda yeni soru i\u015faretleri olu\u015fuyor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 2024\u2019te neredeyse rekor seviyelerde g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ithal etti\u011fi hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu nokta daha da \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130vme zay\u0131flarken ve RSI d\u00fc\u015ferken, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon) daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini hesaba katan stratejilere y\u00f6nelebilir. 74,60 ve 70,00 gibi kritik desteklere yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, riski ba\u015ftan belirli bir \u015fekilde olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almaya imk\u00e2n verir. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures: ileri vadede al\u0131m-sat\u0131m y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011furan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak ise bu desteklerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenler i\u00e7in daha do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n
Sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseltti; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r, ancak prim geliri yaratma imk\u00e2n\u0131 da do\u011furur. Mevcut uzun pozisyona kar\u015f\u0131 kapal\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (covered call: eldeki varl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 call satarak prim toplama), fiyat\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ya da yatay gitmesi halinde prim geliri sa\u011flayabilir ve kay\u0131plara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tampon olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu trendin tersine d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici gerekir; \u00f6rne\u011fin tahvil faizlerinde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya da petrol fiyat\u0131 endi\u015felerini azaltacak belirgin bir jeopolitik gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (\u00f6r. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi). Tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi arayanlar 74,60 deste\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izleyebilir. Diren\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen 83,60\u2019a olas\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle hedeflemek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread (bull call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131ml\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131ml\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) kullan\u0131labilir; b\u00f6ylece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi s\u00fcrerse risk s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte sert sat\u0131\u015f: ons 76 dolar alt\u0131na %9 d\u00fc\u015ferken alt\u0131n 4.500\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. Dolar ve tahvil faizi bask\u0131s\u0131 ralliyi k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131ld\u0131. Destek 74,6\/70\/65; diren\u00e7 83,6\/90.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46883"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46883\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}