{"id":46881,"date":"2026-05-18T11:31:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T11:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-faiz-farkinin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-159a-dogru-yukseliyor-mudahale-riski-gundemde\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T11:31:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T11:31:54","slug":"usd-jpy-faiz-farkinin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-159a-dogru-yukseliyor-mudahale-riski-gundemde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-faiz-farkinin-dolari-desteklemesiyle-159a-dogru-yukseliyor-mudahale-riski-gundemde\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131 desteklemesiyle 159\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor; m\u00fcdahale riski g\u00fcndemde"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe 158,42\u2019den 158,84\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Daha \u00f6nceki y\u00f6nlendirme, 158,70\u2019e do\u011fru hareketi i\u015faret etmi\u015f ve 159,00 seviyesinin hen\u00fcz olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) sadece biraz g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, ancak 159,00 \u00fczeri bir hareket halen bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

159,00 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131) net de\u011fil. 159,40 bir sonraki \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fte fiyat\u0131n zorlanabilece\u011fi seviye) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve yak\u0131n zamanda test edilmesi beklenmiyor. Yak\u0131n vadeli \u201cdestek\u201dler (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte fiyat\u0131n tutunabilece\u011fi seviye) 158,60 ve 158,40.<\/p>\n

Near Term Levels In Focus<\/h3>\n

1\u20133 haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde parite 12 May\u0131s\u2019ta 157,30\u2019dayd\u0131 ve diren\u00e7 158,30 olarak not edildi. 158,30\u2019un k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fcne yerle\u015fmesinin) ard\u0131ndan odak 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta 159,00\u2019a d\u00f6nd\u00fc; o g\u00fcn \u201cspot\u201d fiyat (anl\u0131k piyasa fiyat\u0131) 158,40\u2019t\u0131.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, izlenecek ana seviye olarak 159,00\u2019\u0131 koruyor. 159,00 net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa bir sonraki hedef 159,40. \u201cG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek\u201d seviyesi 157,90\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi; daha \u00f6nce ge\u00e7en 157,40 ve 157,20 seviyelerinin yerini ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131da, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor; kaynak FXStreet Insights Team olarak g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n

Strategy And Risk Considerations<\/h3>\n

Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 \u201cfaiz fark\u0131\u201d (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) olmaya devam ediyor ve son bir y\u0131lda daha da a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 civar\u0131nda tutarken, \u201c\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon\u201d (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %0,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 ise fark\u0131 anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kapatmad\u0131. Bu durum, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolar alma stratejisini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi yukar\u0131 itiyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201dnun (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; ancak do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon (parite y\u00fckselir beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) riskli. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha dengeli bir y\u00f6ntem \u201ccall spread\u201d (iki call opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) olabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin 159,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p ayn\u0131 anda 161,00 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak. Bu strateji, kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken hem olas\u0131 k\u00e2r\u0131 hem de ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n

Japon yetkililerden olas\u0131 \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasa al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) riskine kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olunmal\u0131. 2022 ve 2024\u2019te benzer seviyelerde sert ve ani geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ay daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201cs\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u201d yapt\u0131. Uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in, yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cout-of-the-money put\u201d (mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) belirgin artt\u0131; bu da opsiyon al\u0131m maliyetini y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n se\u00e7ici olmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket beklemiyorlarsa \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d i\u00e7eren (opsiyon satarak prim geliri hedefleyen) stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir. Ancak mevcut gerilim dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullanmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00f6zler 159,00\u2019da: \u0130vme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artsa da k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m bekleniyor. \u00dcstte 159,40 diren\u00e7, altta 158,60\/158,40 destek. Faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi besliyor; m\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46881"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46881\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}