\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda, \u0130ranl\u0131 ve Ummanl\u0131 teknik ekiplerin ge\u00e7en hafta Umman\u2019da bir araya geldi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fi sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in bir yol ele al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ayr\u0131ca, ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Pakistan \u00fczerinden h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. Hem \u0130ran hem de ABD, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n son \u00f6nerisine ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tahran\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 talepler aras\u0131nda dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran fonlar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. \u0130ran, \u015fu anda oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n sona erdirilmesi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 sert geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), daha \u00f6nce 5 haftay\u0131 a\u015fan zirve olan 99,40\u2019\u0131 g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,15 seviyesinde %0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi. (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endekstir.)<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol de g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirvesi olan 103,86 dolardan geri \u00e7ekildi. %1,66 art\u0131da kalsa da 102,60 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. (WTI, ABD merkezli bir ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc ve k\u00fcresel fiyatlamada referans kabul edilir.)<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn WTI ham petrol, varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 85 dolar seviyesinde belirgin \u015fekilde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun bir nedeni, 2025\u2019teki gerilim d\u00f6neminde fiyatlara eklenen \u201crisk primi\u201dnin (jeopolitik risk gibi sebeplerle fiyata eklenen ekstra pay) art\u0131k zay\u0131flamas\u0131. Veriler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fin istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; hacmin g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesinti ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na dair ilk endi\u015feleri azalt\u0131yor. Ancak ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fcndemde olan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve dondurulmu\u015f fonlar gibi temel ba\u015fl\u0131klar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz, bu da piyasada yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bir sakinlik yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanma e\u011filimi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. VIX endeksi 14 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n rehavete yak\u0131n bir beklenti i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. (VIX, ABD hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergedir.) Bu ortam, gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u201csigorta\u201d maliyeti \u015fu anda \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine uzun vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. (Vadeli kontrat, ileri bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r; al\u0131m opsiyonu, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131d\u0131r; \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasan\u0131n \u00fczerinde\u201d olan opsiyon, bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in hemen kazanca ge\u00e7meyen ama sert y\u00fckseli\u015fte de\u011ferlenen t\u00fcrd\u00fcr.) Bu y\u00f6ntem, m\u00fczakerelerin bozulmas\u0131 veya yeni bir gerilim halinde y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yol sunar. Piyasa a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla ekonomik talep beklentilerine odaklan\u0131rken, bu jeopolitik risk opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131nda yeterince yans\u0131m\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te haberlerle dolar zay\u0131flarken, \u015fimdi ABD Dolar Endeksi 105,20 gibi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seviyede. Bu hareketin ana nedeni \u201cfaiz farklar\u0131\u201d (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n para birimlerini etkilemesi); Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi para birimi\/varl\u0131k) etkisi de\u011fil. Bu nedenle, bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevleriyle korunma eskisi kadar net de\u011fil. En belirgin f\u0131rsat, riskin en do\u011frudan fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol opsiyonlar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in \u0130ran-Umman teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrerken, ABD\u2019yle temaslar devam ediyor. Dolar gerilerken petrol risk primi eriyor, VIX d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Piyasa rehaveti f\u0131rsat: uzun vadeli WTI al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46880\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}