Rabobank, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 79. g\u00fcnde h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiilen kapal\u0131 oldu\u011funu, k\u00fcresel ham petrol ve rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn (benzin, motorin gibi) stoklar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla eridi\u011fini bildirdi. Notta, bir\u00e7ok tahminin \u0130ran\u2019da k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ve bo\u011faz\u0131n gemi trafi\u011fine tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na yeniden ba\u015flay\u0131p ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Rapora g\u00f6re bombard\u0131man\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131, fiziki petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyat farklar\u0131n\u0131 (spread: farkl\u0131 vadeler ya da \u00fcr\u00fcnler aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131) sert \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 itebilir; hisse senetleri ise gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re Asya\u2019daki fiziki tedarik zincirleri (petrol\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek teslimatla al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ak\u0131\u015f) her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn varil bulmakta daha \u00e7ok zorlan\u0131yor. Haberde ayr\u0131ca Scott Bessent\u2019in, ABD\u2019nin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka nedeniyle \u00fcretimi durdurulan sahalar\u0131n (shut-in: g\u00fcvenlik\/lojistik nedeniyle \u00fcretimi ge\u00e7ici kesilen \u00fcretim) artmas\u0131yla \u0130ran ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden piyasaya d\u00f6nmesi gerekece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberde, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131, bug\u00fcn piyasadaki temel ger\u00e7ek. K\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 eriyor; ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA: ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) verileri, \u015fubattan bu yana ABD stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 60 milyon varilden fazla azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu s\u00fcren arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiziki piyasada yeterli petrol bulunmamas\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem stratejilerinde ana senaryo olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli.<\/p>\n
Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri 135 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken piyasa, arz riski primini (risk primi: olas\u0131 kesintiye kar\u015f\u0131 fiyata eklenen pay) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatl\u0131yor. Piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201cbackwardation\u201d var; yani en yak\u0131n vadeli kontrat daha ileri vadelerden \u00e7ok daha pahal\u0131. Bu durum, acil teslimat i\u00e7in petrol aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131lara d\u00f6nmesi gibi yeni bir t\u0131rmanma, fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7ok sert yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re yak\u0131n vade al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya al\u0131m opsiyonu stratejileri (call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlama) olas\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 makul bir pozisyon alma yolu olmaya devam ediyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX: petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor; bu, opsiyonlar\u0131n pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu ancak belirsizli\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 senaryoya haz\u0131rlanman\u0131n maliyeti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ve bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. Bu da resmi varsay\u0131mlar ile trader\u2019lar\u0131n her g\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiziki piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ciddi bir kopukluk yarat\u0131yor. Rapora g\u00f6re bu durum, resmi ekonomik tahminlerin enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlama konusunda fazla iyimser olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ge\u00e7mi\u015f arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 (arz \u015foku: arz\u0131n aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131) hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; ancak bu kez s\u00fcrenin uzamas\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck risk. 2022\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgalinden sonraki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla, kapanman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 daha belirleyici. Kapanma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunun bu kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fini az ki\u015fi bekliyordu; ancak kritik bir bo\u011faz\u0131n abluka ile kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 Asya tedarik zincirlerini a\u011f\u0131r bi\u00e7imde etkilemeye devam ediyor. Diplomaside yak\u0131n zamanda sonu\u00e7 al\u0131nmazsa fiyatlar\u0131n \u00f6nceki zirveleri a\u015fabilece\u011fi senaryosuna g\u00f6re konumlanmak gerekti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz 79 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr fiilen kapal\u0131: Stoklar eriyor, Asya\u2019da varil k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Brent 135$\u2019ta backwardation sert. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a yeniden sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 fiyat\u0131 z\u0131plat\u0131p hisseleri bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46879\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}