K\u00fcresel hisse senetleri Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi ve Pazartesiye de zay\u0131f girdi. Asya borsalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken, ABD ve Avrupa vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren endekslerin gelecekteki fiyat\u0131na dair kontratlar) de ekside seyretti.<\/p>\n
Bu hareket, k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (bond sell-off: tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi) s\u00fcrmesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle geldi. \u0130ran\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz g\u00fcndemi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasas\u0131nda y\u00fckselen tek sekt\u00f6r enerji oldu; bunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f etkiliydi. Sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131nda \u201cdefansif\u201d (savunmac\u0131: ekonomik yava\u015flamada daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131) hisseler, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (low-volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 az) ve de\u011fer (value: g\u00f6rece ucuz de\u011ferleme) taraf\u0131 genel piyasaya g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Malzemeler (materials) ve di\u011fer emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 hisseler de geriledi. Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ge\u00e7en hafta bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131; en sert hareketler Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasa hareketleri, hisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201cnominal b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d (nominal growth: enflasyon dahil b\u00fcy\u00fcme) beklentisinden kaynaklanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bunun yerine fiyatlamalar, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00e7ok; maliye politikas\u0131\/s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 (fiscal concerns: b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanma endi\u015feleri), enflasyon riski ve petrol ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa mesaj\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden de\u011fil riskten besleniyor: ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi (10-year Treasury yield: devletin 10 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) bu sabah %4,75\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi hik\u00e2yesi de\u011fil; b\u00fct\u00e7e endi\u015feleri ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun (oil-driven inflation: petrol pahal\u0131yken maliyetlerin yay\u0131lmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir tablo. Benzer bir dinamik, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fi trendine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde (long-duration bond ETF: vadesi uzun tahvilleri tutan fon; faize \u00e7ok hassas) \u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin TLT\u2019de\u2014 put opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7\/koruma) almay\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisselerdeki geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle, b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullan\u0131labilir. VIX (S&P 500 oynakl\u0131k endeksi; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir) \u015fu anda 28 civar\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere g\u00f6re belirgin y\u00fckseldi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla riski fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. S&P 500\u2019de put spread (put spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki put ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, kazanc\u0131\/zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda risk azaltman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli bir y\u00f6ntem sunar.<\/p>\n
Enerji, g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6steren tek sekt\u00f6r olmaya devam ediyor. Jeopolitik gerilimler petrol\u00fc y\u00fcksek tuttuk\u00e7a bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. Brent petrol H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki durumun etkisiyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, XLE gibi enerji ETF\u2019lerinde call opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7) almay\u0131 uygun buluyoruz. Bu, piyasada enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011frudan fayda sa\u011flayan tek alan\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Malzemeler (materials) ve sanayi (industrials) gibi d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerde (cyclicals: ekonomi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcken iyi, zay\u0131fken k\u00f6t\u00fc performans e\u011filimli) sert sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyali de\u011fil. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz stagflasyon (stagflation: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fi b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri (growth-oriented: de\u011feri gelecekteki k\u00e2rlara dayanan) cezaland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir \u201cpair trade\u201d (e\u015fle\u015fmi\u015f i\u015flem: bir varl\u0131kta al\u0131\u015f, di\u011ferinde sat\u0131\u015fla farktan yararlanma) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin XLK gibi teknoloji ETF\u2019sinde put al\u0131rken ayn\u0131 anda XLP gibi defansif temel t\u00fcketim ETF\u2019sinde call almak, performans fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi klasik \u201cg\u00fcvenli limanlar\u0131n\u201d (safe haven: riskte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131klar) da bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici. Bu, basit bir sekt\u00f6r rotasyonundan (rotation: paran\u0131n bir temadan di\u011ferine kaymas\u0131) \u00e7ok; y\u00fckselen faizlerin di\u011fer varl\u0131klar\u0131 daha az cazip hale getirmesiyle nakde ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (flight to cash: likit paraya y\u00f6neli\u015f) i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da, hisse pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n korunma yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; piyasa i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar alarm veriyor: K\u00fcresel hisseler d\u00fc\u015ferken tahvil faizleri %4,75\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131, petrol 110$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde. B\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil b\u00fct\u00e7e\/enflasyon riski fiyatlan\u0131yor; VIX 28. Korunma: endeks put spread, TLT put; enerji call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46874"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46874\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46874"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}