Hindistan rupisi son bir y\u0131lda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 de\u011fer kaybederek Asya\u2019n\u0131n en zay\u0131f para birimi oldu. Bu hareket, hisse senedi piyasas\u0131ndan para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve artan petrol ithalat maliyetleriyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse senedi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131nda 20 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131; 2025 genelindeki toplam \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 19 milyar dolard\u0131. Ham petrol ithalat maliyetleri y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n dolar talebi de artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ABD ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda indirimli Rus petrol\u00fcnden daha pahal\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu tedarikine y\u00f6nelmesi, ithalat maliyeti bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da dolar talebini y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Yetkililer, rupiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleyi art\u0131rd\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkilemesi) ve bankalardan spek\u00fclatif \u201cuzun USD\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmalar\u0131n\u0131 istedi (dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fine bahis niteli\u011findeki pozisyonlar). Dolar talebini azaltmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n ithalat kurallar\u0131 da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmet alt\u0131n ithalat vergisini %6\u2019dan %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve \u201cadvance authorisation scheme\u201d kapsam\u0131nda (ihracat\u00e7\u0131ya kolayl\u0131k sa\u011flayan \u00f6n izinli ithalat d\u00fczeni) lisans ba\u015f\u0131na 100 kg \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 getirdi. Yabanc\u0131 tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in sermaye kazanc\u0131 vergisi (varl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f k\u00e2r\u0131) indirimi de g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa rupi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor; merkez bankas\u0131, de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 tamamen durdurmaktan ziyade oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (kurun sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan rupisi, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve pahal\u0131 ithalat gibi zorluklara benzer \u015fekilde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel referans ham petrol fiyat\u0131) yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckselmesiyle Hindistan\u2019\u0131n petrol faturas\u0131ndan gelen bask\u0131 yeniden art\u0131yor. Bu tablo, rupideki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n temel nedenlerinin ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in (opsiyon ve vadeli gibi fiyat \u00fczerinden s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ortam USD\/INR paritesinde y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri yumu\u015fatmay\u0131 tercih etmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kademeli de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan yararlanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. USD\/INR paritesinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan sat\u0131n alma hakk\u0131) almak, rupi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na maruz kal\u0131rken zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yol olabilir.<\/p>\n
Rupide kal\u0131c\u0131 bir toparlanma i\u00e7in gerekli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y giri\u015finin (yabanc\u0131 fonlar\u0131n hisse\/tahvil al\u0131m\u0131) hen\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi belirtiliyor. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru yava\u015flasa da, Nisan 2026 verileri yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden net sat\u0131c\u0131ya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve Hindistan hisselerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyar dolar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in aktif m\u00fcdahale ediyor; ancak bu tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil. D\u00f6viz rezervlerinin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n elindeki d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n stoku) yakla\u015f\u0131k 620 milyar dolara gerilemesi, kuru savunman\u0131n maliyetine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle m\u00fcdahalelerin sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131, ancak petrol y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a alttaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 e\u011filimini tersine \u00e7evirmemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Asya\u2019n\u0131n en zay\u0131f paras\u0131 rupi alarm veriyor: Son 1 y\u0131lda dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %12 eridi. 20 milyar $ hisse \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, artan petrol faturas\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahalelere ra\u011fmen oynakl\u0131k s\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46871\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}