EUR\/USD, ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) beklentileriyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi sonras\u0131 Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,1620 civar\u0131nda seyrederken art arda alt\u0131nc\u0131 g\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) yetkilileri enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin \u00f6ncelik olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalar, CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir hafta \u00f6nceki %14\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %48\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. (CME FedWatch: Vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131na bakarak Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge.)<\/p>\n
Dolar, jeopolitik gerilimlerin s\u00fcrmesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klar) de destek buldu. ABD ve \u0130ran, haftalard\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bitirecek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak bir anla\u015fmadan uzak kal\u0131rken, Tayvan\u2019a ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzak durmas\u0131) art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya meyilli) bir \u00e7izgi izleyebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re ekonomistlerin %85\u2019i ECB\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da mevduat faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesini bekliyor. (Baz puan: Faizde 0,01 puanl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim; 25 baz puan = 0,25 puan.)<\/p>\n
Euro, AB\u2019de 20 \u00fclke taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131l\u0131yor ve 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu; g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem hacmine ula\u015ft\u0131. EUR\/USD t\u00fcm d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu olu\u015ftururken, EUR\/JPY (%4), EUR\/GBP (%3) ve EUR\/AUD (%2) takip ediyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin beklenti, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti. Nisan 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7er) verisi %2,9 gelirken, CME FedWatch y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %15 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, daha \u00f6nce dolar rallisini besleyen \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d endi\u015felerine k\u0131yasla net bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi.<\/p>\n
Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda enflasyon daha \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP verisi (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,2 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 ECB\u2019yi \u015fahin tutarak euroyu desteklemek i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bitirirken ECB\u2019nin bitirmemesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde faiz politikas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler, gerilim ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re bir miktar azalm\u0131\u015f olsa bile, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Brent petrol 95 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat endi\u015felerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyeti, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fczerinde, daha kendine yeterli ABD ekonomisine k\u0131yasla daha bask\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 etki yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu karma\u015f\u0131k tabloda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in, fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 seviyeden hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat nereye giderse gitsin b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji) bu ortamda cazip olabilir. EUR\/USD\u2019de 3 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenti) %8,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasan\u0131n harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak isteyenler i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran hak) almak; jeopolitik risklerin yeniden artmas\u0131 veya Fed\u2019in beklenmedik \u015fekilde daha \u015fahinle\u015fmesi halinde ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: kur y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran hak), ECB\u2019nin kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in beklemede kalmas\u0131 durumunda euronun toparlanmas\u0131na daha kontroll\u00fc bir \u015fekilde pozisyon almay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131labilir. Bu i\u015flemlerin zamanlamas\u0131nda Almanya ve ABD\u2019den gelecek kritik ekonomik veriler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri ve jeopolitik risklerle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 6 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,1620\u2019de. Ancak yap\u0131\u015fkan Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu ECB\u2019yi \u015fahin tutabilir; opsiyonlarda volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46862\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}