{"id":46860,"date":"2026-05-18T06:58:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T06:58:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/boeden-breeden-siyasi-belirsizlik-faiz-hamlelerinde-frene-neden-olurken-sterlindeki-oynaklik-artiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T06:58:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T06:58:16","slug":"boeden-breeden-siyasi-belirsizlik-faiz-hamlelerinde-frene-neden-olurken-sterlindeki-oynaklik-artiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/boeden-breeden-siyasi-belirsizlik-faiz-hamlelerinde-frene-neden-olurken-sterlindeki-oynaklik-artiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BoE\u2019den Breeden: Siyasi belirsizlik faiz hamlelerinde frene neden olurken sterlindeki oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Sarah Breeden, Financial Times\u2019\u0131n pazartesi yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 habere g\u00f6re siyasi belirsizli\u011fin i\u015f ortam\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Breeden, bu belirsizli\u011fin \u015firketlerin faaliyet ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 bozdu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Breeden ayr\u0131ca BoE\u2019nin faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirirken \u201cfazla h\u0131zl\u0131 tetik \u00e7ekmemesi\u201d gerekti\u011fini belirtti. Bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinde (kredi ve tahvil faizleri) h\u0131zl\u0131 veya aceleci ad\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131 Ve \u0130lk Tepki<\/h3>\n

Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda piyasa hareketlerinde West Texas Intermediate (WTI) %0,08 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3315 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n

BoE\u2019nin, yetkililerin ani hamlelerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadede faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Siyasi belirsizlik arka plan\u0131 i\u015f ortam\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumunda kal\u0131p ekonominin bu bask\u0131lar\u0131 nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek, politikan\u0131n ise stabil oldu\u011fu bu tablo genellikle piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131) art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu durum opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: GBP\/USD paritesinde 3 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; ge\u00e7en ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen %7 seviyelerine g\u00f6re belirgin art\u0131\u015f. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n net bir y\u00f6n beklentisinden \u00e7ok fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazanmaya odaklanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Faizlerde \u201cfazla h\u0131zl\u0131\u201d davranmama uyar\u0131s\u0131, yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Gecelik Endeks Swaplar\u0131 (OIS: piyasadaki faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan swap s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) a\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131na indiriyor; birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nceki yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 fiyatlamaya g\u00f6re keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesine dayal\u0131 i\u015flemler \u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa vadeli \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvillerinde (gilts: Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Hazine tahvilleri) uzun pozisyon\u2014 art\u0131k daha y\u00fcksek risk ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Pozisyonlanma Ve Varl\u0131klar Aras\u0131nda Risk<\/h3>\n

\u015eirketler \u00fczerindeki etkinin verilerde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, siyasi iklimle ilgili endi\u015feleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Son veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %0,5 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen istikrarl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olumsuz. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hisselerinde temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor; FTSE 100 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedging: olumsuz fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc sigortalama) daha ihtiyatl\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n

Sterlin taraf\u0131nda ise iki etki z\u0131t y\u00f6nde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor: Sabit faizler destek sa\u011flarken siyasi kayg\u0131lar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda para birimini bant i\u00e7inde (range-bound: belirli bir aral\u0131kta yatay) tutabilir; 2024 sonundaki genel se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci \u00f6ncesindeki seyre benzer. Bu nedenle beklenen band\u0131n \u00fcst ve alt s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (opsiyon primi toplamak i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f) yap\u0131lmas\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n

Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BoE\u2019den frene bas\u0131n mesaj\u0131: Breeden, siyasi belirsizli\u011fin \u015firketleri vurdu\u011funu ve faizlerde acele edilmemesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Yaz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc; GBP\/USD z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46860\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}