Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), 30 Mart\u2019tan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n olan 4.480 dolar civar\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ancak kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmekte zorland\u0131. Jeopolitik belirsizlik ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131, faiz geliri olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu.<\/p>\n
Bir insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 (drone) sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, BAE\u2019deki Barakah N\u00fckleer Santrali\u2019nde yang\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Suudi Arabistan, Irak\u2019tan f\u0131rlat\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 drone\u2019u engelledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klarken ABD, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 anla\u015fmaya h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde ilerlemesi konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gerilim enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da etkiledi. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki aksamalar sonras\u0131 ham petrol iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de para politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131) beklentilerini destekledi.<\/p>\n
CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2026\u2019da olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f da konu\u015fuluyor. Piyasalar, y\u00f6n i\u00e7in \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak FOMC Tutanaklar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Fed toplant\u0131 notlar\u0131) ve k\u00fcresel \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d PMI verilerini (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomik faaliyetin erken g\u00f6stergesi) izleyecek.<\/p>\n
Fiziki piyasada Hindistan\u2019daki iskontolar (spot fiyata g\u00f6re daha ucuza sat\u0131\u015f) ge\u00e7en hafta rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131karken, \u00c7in\u2019deki primler (spot fiyata g\u00f6re daha pahal\u0131 i\u015flem) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamada (SMA; fiyatlar\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131) 4.352,59 dolarda destek, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da 4.790,55 dolarda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 40\u2019a yak\u0131n, MACD (iki hareketli ortalamaya dayal\u0131 trend g\u00f6stergesi) ise negatif.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, g\u00fcvenli liman talebini ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendiriyor; bu da alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015fesini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken piyasa daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir Fed\u2019e oynuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 107,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131. Bu seviye, 2025 sonundaki piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye, WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (gelecekte teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 da ekleniyor ve bu durum y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini besliyor. Nitekim ge\u00e7en haftaki y\u00fcksek \u00c7ekirdek PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %3,1 gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan, fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed politika faizine y\u00f6nelik piyasa beklentisi) aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.500 dolardaki psikolojik seviyeye do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fi sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bir sonraki \u00f6nemli hedef, 4.352 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama. Ge\u00e7en hafta 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu teyit edecek ifadeler yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019teki \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: Alt\u0131nda ilk g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131, piyasada daha y\u00fcksek faizler fiyatland\u0131k\u00e7a h\u0131zla s\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 4.790 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ilk i\u015faret olur.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019den gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziki talep not edilse de Hindistan\u2019daki rekor iskontolar, genel fiziki deste\u011fin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu unsurlar\u0131n fiyatlara taban olu\u015fturmas\u0131 zor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin (faiz oran\u0131) %4,85\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskin dolar\u0131 desteklemesi, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnde belirleyici olmaya devam edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda tepki al\u0131m\u0131 c\u0131l\u0131z: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve 115 dolar\u0131 a\u015fan petrol, enflasyon-kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz beklentisiyle dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 kritik; 4.500 sat\u0131\u015f, 4.352 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46859\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}