USD\/CHF, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,7870 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve 30 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Bu hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeleri izlemesiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan beklentiyi a\u015fan (daha y\u00fcksek) enflasyon verileri, piyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na (olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeniden hesaplay\u0131p fiyatlara yans\u0131tmas\u0131na) yol a\u00e7t\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %48,4 olarak g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %14,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler t\u0131kan\u0131rken \u0130ran i\u00e7in \u201csaat i\u015fliyor\u201d dedi. \u0130ran medyas\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n son \u00f6nerilerine ABD\u2019nin yan\u0131t\u0131nda somut tavizler yer almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcren gerilim, dolar\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destek bulmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel enerji fiyat\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131na (enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015flere) daha az a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. RBC Capital Markets, bunun ABD\u2019nin net petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 (ihracat\u0131 ithalat\u0131ndan fazla) olmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin ise b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131; k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi), \u00fclke i\u00e7i ko\u015fullar ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politikalar\u0131ndan etkilenir. SNB, enflasyonu %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 hedefler ve y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez toplan\u0131r. Frank 2011-2015 d\u00f6neminde euroya sabitlenmi\u015fti (kurun belirli bir seviyede tutulmas\u0131). Bu sabitlemenin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, frang\u0131n %20\u2019den fazla de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen CHF, euro ile %90\u2019dan fazla korelasyon (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n birlikte hareket etme derecesi) g\u00f6stermeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF\u2019de tan\u0131d\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; parite 0,8100 seviyesini test ediyor. Bu hareket, 2025 ilkbahar\u0131nda 0,78\u2019li seviyelerden ba\u015flayan kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n ana nedenleri olan ABD enflasyonu ve jeopolitik gerilimler h\u00e2l\u00e2 etkili.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonu g\u00f6steren veri) verisi %3,8 ile beklentinin \u00fczerinde gelerek enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerini yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum, 2025\u2019te s\u00fcrpriz y\u00fcksek enflasyon verilerinin Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlatmas\u0131na benziyor. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015f sergileyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in USD\/CHF\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n (paritenin y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle dolar al\u0131p frank satma) bir s\u00fcre daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 0,8200 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015fleyece\u011fi seviye) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli de\u011ferlendirme yolu sunar. Bu strateji, trend tersine d\u00f6nerse riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n
Ancak SNB (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131) yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa da %2,1 ile SNB hedefinin biraz \u00fczerinde. SNB\u2019den frang\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmesi, USD\/CHF\u2019de sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 yolu ile SNB\u2019nin olas\u0131 tepkisi aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar USD\/CHF\u2019de \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem call hem put alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynama) stratejisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; bu, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler. 2015\u2019te sabitlemenin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, SNB\u2019nin piyasay\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcren gerilim, dolara destek olmaya devam ediyor. ABD net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019ye k\u0131yasla enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131ndan daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkileniyor. Bu jeopolitik risk primi (risk nedeniyle fiyata eklenen destek), franga kar\u015f\u0131 dolar ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF\u2019de yeni zirve alarm\u0131: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyonu ve \u0130ran gerilimi Fed\u2019e \u015fahin fiyatlama getirip dolar\u0131 destekliyor. 0,8100-0,8200 izlenirken, SNB s\u00fcrprizi sert d\u00fczeltme riski yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46856\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}