\u00c7in\u2019in y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana (y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan ilgili aya kadar olan d\u00f6nem) **sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131** Nisan\u2019da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re **%1,6 geriledi**. Piyasa beklentisi de **%1,6** seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu veri, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na dayanan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131ndaki beklenmedik daralma, \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in belirgin bir **olumsuz (ay\u0131) sinyal**. Bunu, i\u00e7 talebin ve \u015firket g\u00fcveninin beklenenden daha fazla zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren net bir i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Sonu\u00e7, toparlanman\u0131n sadece durmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye de ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Veri, 2025 boyunca da g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz **gayrimenkul (konut) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki krizden** g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileniyor. Son veriler, en b\u00fcy\u00fck 100 geli\u015ftiricinin konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda **%45 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc** g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, sabit yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck kaleminin (\u00f6zellikle in\u015faat ve konut) h\u00e2l\u00e2 derin bir durgunlukta oldu\u011funu do\u011fruluyor. Negatif tablo, kamunun **altyap\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n** (yol, k\u00f6pr\u00fc, enerji a\u011f\u0131 gibi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) art\u0131k \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc telafi edemedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Sanayi emtialar\u0131nda (sanayide kullan\u0131lan hammaddelerde) fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. **Demir cevheri vadeli kontratlar\u0131** (ileride teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) zay\u0131flayan talep beklentileriyle Dalian borsas\u0131nda ton ba\u015f\u0131na kritik **100 dolar** seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi. Bu, bak\u0131r ve di\u011fer **baz metallerde** (bak\u0131r, al\u00fcminyum, nikel gibi sanayi metalleri) **k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan i\u015flemler) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u201cg\u00f6sterge\u201d gibi hareket eden Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yuan \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artacak. **USD\/CNH** paritesini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; **7,40** seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. CNH, yuan\u0131n **offshore** (\u00c7in ana karas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasalarda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren) t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ifade eder. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBOC) ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir **para politikas\u0131 gev\u015femesi** (faiz indirimi, kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rma gibi ad\u0131mlar) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi gerekebilir. Bu durum, h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r ve offshore yuan kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) stratejisini destekler.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz kademeli gev\u015feme ad\u0131mlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir toparlanma \u00fcretmedi. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 PBOC faiz indirimlerinin piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olumlu etkisi olmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. Piyasan\u0131n \u201cd\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d i\u00e7in sabr\u0131 azal\u0131yor; bu da kamu destek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara g\u00f6re daha az etkili olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: \u00c7in sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Nisan\u2019da %1,6 darald\u0131. Gayrimenkul krizi ve sat\u0131\u015flarda %45 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131l\u0131yor; emtialar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, AUD zay\u0131f. USD\/CNH 7,40\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken yuan bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46846\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}