G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de geriledi ve Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde, 75,00 dolar civar\u0131ndan sonra 74,20 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki enerji kaynakl\u0131 \u015fok, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltince (enflasyon: fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyinde art\u0131\u015f) daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentileri artt\u0131 (faiz: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti; y\u00fckselmesi genelde de\u011ferli metalleri bask\u0131lar).<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) enflasyon konusunda daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (\u015fahin: enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir \u00e7izgiye kayd\u0131; yetkililer fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma ihtiyac\u0131na i\u015faret etti. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (FedWatch: vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131na g\u00f6re faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %48 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %14\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u0131ras\u0131nda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hissetti. ABD ile \u0130ran, haftalard\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirecek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak bir anla\u015fmadan uzak kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011faz fiilen kapal\u0131 kal\u0131nca petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin maliyetleri artt\u0131. Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yeni sonu\u00e7larla uyarmas\u0131 ve \u015ei Cinping\u2019in Tayvan\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u00c7in aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131 tansiyonun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n
UBS, daha zay\u0131f sanayi talebi (sanayi talebi: \u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ihtiyac\u0131) ve artan madencilik arz\u0131n\u0131 (arz: piyasaya sunulan miktar) gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi (yat\u0131r\u0131m talebi: \u00fcretim i\u00e7in de\u011fil, yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m) tahminini 400 milyon onsun \u00fczerinden 300 milyon onsa indirdi. UBS ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (a\u00e7\u0131k: talebin arz\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc 300 milyon onstan 60\u201370 milyon onsa \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcmser UBS tahmini, daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir tabloyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. T\u00fcketici elektroni\u011fi kaynakl\u0131 talep zay\u0131f kalsa da, g\u00fcncel sekt\u00f6r raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi (fotovoltaik) alan\u0131nda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebinin 2026\u2019da 250 milyon onsu a\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi talebi, fiziki piyasay\u0131 (fiziki piyasa: ger\u00e7ek metal al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) bir\u00e7ok tahminden daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sert enerji \u015foku da hafifledi; bu da enflasyonu yukar\u0131 iten ana unsurlardan birini azaltt\u0131. ABD-\u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki Tayvan gerilimi risk olu\u015fturmaya devam etse de, arz kaynakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 (arz \u015foku: mal bulunurlu\u011funun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131) tehdidi zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu da piyasalar\u0131n temel dinamiklere ve merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131na daha fazla odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Potansiyel olarak \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d Fed (g\u00fcvercin: faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n duru\u015f) ile kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sanayi verilerinin \u00e7eli\u015fen sinyalleri oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir (oynakl\u0131k: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131). G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemleri (vadeli i\u015flem: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya bo\u011fa call spread\u2019i (bull call spread: iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki call ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek y\u00fckseli\u015f getirisi hedefleyen strateji) kullanmak, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde olas\u0131 faiz indirimleriyle fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi ya\u015fan\u0131rsa getiriden yararlanmay\u0131, zarar ihtimalini de s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 74,20 dolara gerilerken Ortado\u011fu \u015foku sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fmesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar bask\u0131 kuruyor. FedWatch Aral\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %48\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. UBS talep\/a\u00e7\u0131k tahminlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; g\u00fcne\u015f talebi destek. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46842\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}