GBP\/USD ge\u00e7en haftaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3300\u2019a gerileyen parite, 8 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) 2026\u2019da faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim dolar talebini destekledi. Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a \u201czaman daral\u0131yor\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Times of Israel ise Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130srail ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 yeni e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131lar i\u00e7in askeri haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 ilerletti\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar, bir anla\u015fma ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve petrol\u00fc iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu tablo enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131. Bu da ABD tahvil getirilerini (devlet tahvillerinin faizi) ve dolar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin de, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin yerel se\u00e7imlerdeki a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve Ba\u015fbakan Sir Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar sonras\u0131 artan siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130ngiltere istihdam verileri ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 var. Bu veriler, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz beklentilerini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin k\u00f6keni 886 y\u0131l\u0131na dayan\u0131r ve k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin %12\u2019sini olu\u015fturur; bu da g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 630 milyar dolarl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmi demektir (2022). Ba\u015fl\u0131ca pariteler GBP\/USD (%11), GBP\/JPY (%3) ve EUR\/GBP (%2). BoE\u2019nin para politikas\u0131 hedefi, enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 civar\u0131nda tutmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3300 seviyesine kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde gerilemesi, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi bir ortamda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine i\u015faret ediyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi %4,75\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor; bu seviye 2025 sonundan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti ve ABD\u2019ye sermaye giri\u015fini destekliyor. Bu ko\u015fullarda sterlindeki k\u0131sa vadeli toparlanmalar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik riskler ve y\u00fcksek seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla besleniyor. WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) bu y\u0131l ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu fakt\u00f6rler, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n duru\u015f) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. CME FedWatch Tool verisine g\u00f6re 2026 sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %62\u2019ye y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Bu nedenle piyasalar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tercih edilen para birimi) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise sterlin, belirgin siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131kla zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. YouGov anketine g\u00f6re Starmer\u2019\u0131n onay oran\u0131, zay\u0131f yerel se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %28\u2019e geriledi. Ge\u00e7en hafta \u00f6nemli bir bakan\u0131n istifas\u0131 da h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7inde \u00e7atlaklara i\u015faret ediyor. Bu siyasi risk, sterlin i\u00e7in ciddi bir olumsuzluk yarat\u0131yor ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki \u0130ngiltere verileri kritik \u00f6nemde. Piyasalar Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verilerine odaklan\u0131yor. Beklentiler i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,5\u2019e hafif y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ise %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu tablo BoE\u2019yi zorlayabilir: Normalde y\u00fcksek enflasyon sterlini destekler, ancak zay\u0131flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve siyasi belirsizlik BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: GBP\/USD 1,3300\u2019a inerek 8 Nisan dibini test etti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve 95$ petrol Fed\u2019i \u015fahinle\u015ftirirken, \u0130ngiltere siyaseti sterlini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46841\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}