\u00c7in\u2019in konut fiyat endeksi Nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5 geriledi. Bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f %3,4\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Nisan verisi, y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ki veri aras\u0131ndaki fark 0,1 puan.<\/p>\n
Nisan konut fiyatlar\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019de gayrimenkul (konut ve ticari m\u00fclk) piyasas\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derinle\u015fti\u011fini, yatay seyre ge\u00e7medi\u011fini teyit ediyor. Y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %3,4\u2019ten %3,5\u2019e h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin destek ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (kredi, vergi ve d\u00fczenleme kolayl\u0131klar\u0131 gibi) hen\u00fcz etkili sonu\u00e7 vermedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, \u00c7in ekonomisine do\u011frudan ba\u011fl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda (\u00c7in hisseleri, yuan, emtia talebiyle ili\u015fkili varl\u0131klar gibi) negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc koruma sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (PBoC) daha agresif parasal gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimi, bankalara likidite sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gibi) zorlayabilir; bu da yuan \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131r. USD\/CNH kuru (ABD dolar\u0131\/deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u00c7in yuan\u0131 paritesi) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 7,45\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7ti (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 teknik seviye). Bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ve \u00c7in yuan\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Konut krizinin sanayi emtias\u0131 talebini do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Son istatistikler, demir cevheri liman stoklar\u0131n\u0131n (limanlarda biriken arz) yaln\u0131zca son bir ayda %5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, in\u015faat\u0131n temel girdisi olan \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminin belirgin bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bunun yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik olarak bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekte teslimat i\u00e7in standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck madencilik ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; belirli sekt\u00f6r hisselerinden olu\u015fan sepet) k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) tercihimiz olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda tablo, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve piyasay\u0131 sert sat\u0131\u015flara g\u00f6t\u00fcren etkisiz te\u015fvik paketlerini \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7inli gayrimenkul geli\u015ftirici \u015firketlerin hisseleri ile onlara kredi veren bankalar\u0131n, genel piyasadan daha zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Hang Seng Mainland Properties Endeksi\u2019nde (\u00c7in ana kara gayrimenkul hisselerini izleyen endeks) sat\u0131m pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Dalga etkisi \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131na da yans\u0131yor. \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine duyarl\u0131 bir g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Avustralya dolar\u0131 son bir ayda %2 geriledi. \u00c7in\u2019e sat\u0131\u015f ba\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel \u015firketler, \u00f6zellikle l\u00fcks t\u00fcketim ve otomotiv sekt\u00f6rlerinde, belirgin bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir. Bunu, ilgili Avrupa ve ABD sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonla riskten korunma (hedge: portf\u00f6ydeki kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in\u2019de konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Nisan\u2019da %3,5\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131; destekler etkisiz. PBoC gev\u015femesi yuan\u0131 bask\u0131lar, USD\/CNH 7,45 \u00fcst\u00fc. Emtia zay\u0131f: demir stoklar\u0131 +%5. Opsiyon\/short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46840\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}