USD\/JPY \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 g\u00fcnde y\u00fckseldi; pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 158,90 civar\u0131nda seyretti. ABD dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha sert bir \u00e7izgiye yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkilileri, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmenin ana hedef olmaya devam etti\u011fini ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerse politika faizinde (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gecelik faiz hedefi) ilave art\u0131\u015flar gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalar, CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenti) bir hafta \u00f6nceki %14\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %48\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
Dolar, jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (\u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde daha \u00e7ok tercih edilen varl\u0131k) talebinden de destek buldu. ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, haftalard\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmek ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in anla\u015fmaya h\u00e2l\u00e2 uzak oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ilerleme sa\u011flamazsa yeni sonu\u00e7larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131. Bo\u011faz\u0131n fiilen kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, enerji ithal eden \u00fclkelerin maliyetlerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gerilim, \u00c7in lideri \u015ei Cinping\u2019in Tayvan\u2019\u0131n ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131yla da artt\u0131. Japonya\u2019da \u00fcretici enflasyonunun (\u015firketlerin sat\u0131\u015fa sundu\u011fu \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 ayarlayabilece\u011fi beklentilerini y\u00fckselterek yen \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
BoJ y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyesi Kazuyuki Masu, s\u00fcren enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle politika faizinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ING, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019sini (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,3 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; nisanda enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. Kurum, s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n (devlet destekleri) daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir Fed ile bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki BoJ aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n yene kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 158,90 civar\u0131ndan 160,00 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi yuvarlak seviye) test etmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcnde daha a\u00e7\u0131k bir yol bulunuyor. Jeopolitik gerilimler de dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini art\u0131rarak bu e\u011filimi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Chicago Opsiyon Borsas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k endeksi VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 22 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrederken belirsizlik art\u0131yor; bu nedenle riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlayan pozisyonlar daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131, enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Japon ekonomisini do\u011frudan olumsuz etkileyen kritik bir unsur. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi referans ham petrol) varil fiyat\u0131 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rman\u0131rken, bu durum Japonya\u2019da ithal enflasyonu (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) beslemeyi ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) zorlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Bu temel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, yeni satmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak parite 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japon yetkililerin d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) riskine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok dikkatli olunmal\u0131. 2024\u2019te Tokyo\u2019nun bu e\u015fik a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yeni savunmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde devreye girdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u00e2r al emirleri (k\u00e2r\u0131 kilitlemek i\u00e7in otomatik sat\u0131\u015f) veya iz s\u00fcren zarar durdur (trailing stop; fiyat lehe gittik\u00e7e stop seviyesini takip ettiren emir) kullanarak ani bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 korumay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha agresif (daha h\u0131zl\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya a\u00e7\u0131k) bir \u00e7izgiye y\u00f6nelmesi bu i\u015flemin ana dayana\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Piyasalar\u0131n aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %48 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131 (mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yans\u0131tmas\u0131), dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n (faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan ek kazan\u00e7) daha da artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yakla\u015fan ABD verileri enflasyonda belirgin ve beklenmedik bir so\u011fuma g\u00f6stermedik\u00e7e dolar i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY alt\u0131 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckseliyor: Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fmesiyle dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %48\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/Tayvan gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 destekliyor; 160 testi g\u00fcndemde, m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46838"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46838\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}