EUR\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya\u2019da erken saatlerde 1,1615 civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131, **riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131** (getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla al\u0131nan hisse ve geli\u015fen piyasa varl\u0131klar\u0131 gibi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek ara\u00e7lar) bask\u0131larken euro zay\u0131flad\u0131. Piyasalar, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve ABD **\u00f6nc\u00fc PMI** verilerini bekliyor. (**PMI\/Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi**: \u015eirket y\u00f6neticilerinin anketlerine dayanan, ekonomik faaliyetin art\u0131p azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 erken g\u00f6steren veri.)<\/p>\n
\u0130ran medyas\u0131, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD\u2019nin Tahran\u2019\u0131n son \u00f6nerilerine verdi\u011fi yan\u0131tta somut tavizler bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Fars\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD, bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in be\u015f \u015fart sundu. Bunlar aras\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 uranyumun ABD\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin Tahran\u2019a tazminat \u00f6dememesi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dondurulan varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rtte birinden daha az\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ch\u0131zlanmas\u0131\u201d gerekti\u011fini, aksi halde daha fazla sonu\u00e7la kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Gerilim, **g\u00fcvenli liman para birimi** (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da ECB yetkilileri, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in **faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131** sinyali verdi. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re ekonomistlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %85\u2019i, ECB\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da **mevduat faizini** (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) **25 baz puan** (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131rarak %2,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu oran, Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ayn\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte olanlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan biraz fazlayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,2150 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131dan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak ders, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki **politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na** (birinin faizi art\u0131r\u0131rken di\u011ferinin indirmeye y\u00f6nelmesi gibi farkl\u0131la\u015fma) odaklanmak. Euro B\u00f6lgesi **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar euroda **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. (Call opsiyonu: Belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte kay\u0131p \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.) Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ECB\u2019nin faizleri ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) k\u0131yasla daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fi beklentisine dayan\u0131r ve paritede y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminin 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda hafiflemesi \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131 unsuru kald\u0131rd\u0131; ancak jeopolitik risk h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nebilir. Bu nedenle, paritede y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin **faiz fark\u0131** (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz getirisi fark\u0131) deste\u011fiyle s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyorsa, k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** satmak prim geliri toplamak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Put opsiyonu: Belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; opsiyonu satan, prim al\u0131r ama sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte risk \u00fcstlenir.) EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda **\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) %5,8 ile 12 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne indi; bu da oynakl\u0131k satmaya dayal\u0131 stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Euro B\u00f6lgesi **\u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00dcFE** tahminini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekir; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz, ECB\u2019nin **\u015fahin duru\u015funu** (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD\u2019de i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda zay\u0131flama sinyali veren veriler (\u00f6rne\u011fin ge\u00e7en hafta **i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n** 235 bine hafif y\u00fckselmesi) Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilir. Bu tablo, EUR\/USD\u2019de kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle hedeflemek i\u00e7in **opsiyon spreadleri**ni (ayn\u0131 varl\u0131kta farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte almak\/satmak) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r; \u00f6rne\u011fin **bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi (bull call spread)** (bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satmak) stratejisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik riskle EUR\/USD 1,1615\u2019e \u00e7ekildi; dolar g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe PMI\u2019larda. ECB\u2019nin 25 bp art\u0131\u015f beklentisi euroyu destekler; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46836"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46836\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}