Alt\u0131n, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.535 dolara geriledi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015feleri ve ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a \u201charekete ge\u00e7mesi\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparak ilave yapt\u0131r\u0131m ve ad\u0131m sinyali verdi. \u00c7in\u2019in de dahil oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ise ticaret taraf\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131, sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesine y\u00f6nelik net bir ilerleme g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi.<\/p>\n
Haberlerde, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 (uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme gibi faaliyetler) b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fi belirtildi. \u0130ran medyas\u0131 ise Washington\u2019\u0131n somut bir \u00f6d\u00fcn vermedi\u011fini yazd\u0131; bu da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 riskini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar bu y\u0131l ABD\u2019de faiz indirimi ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise y\u00fckseldi. Alt\u0131n jeopolitik stres d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr, ancak faiz getirisi sa\u011flamaz; bu nedenle faizler y\u00fcksekken talep zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc elinde tutuyor ve 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi. Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle (Treasuries: ABD devlet tahvilleri) ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder; borsalar y\u00fckseldi\u011finde geri \u00e7ekilebilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n dolar cinsinden fiyatlan\u0131r ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere, resesyon (ekonomide daralma) riskine, faizlere ve kur hareketlerine duyarl\u0131d\u0131r. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler genelde alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, jeopolitik risk ile faiz korkusu aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcren gerilim, Brent petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine iterek enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor; bu tablo alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz. Bu da \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131mlar\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek y\u00fckseli\u015flerin, piyasa Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha y\u00fcksek faizle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fine inan\u0131rsa h\u0131zla sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE, CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,8 art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fcksek seyrin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi ve Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tuttu. Bu nedenle CME FedWatch Tool, hazirandaki FOMC (Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi: Fed\u2019in faiz karar organ\u0131) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 75\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Faiz beklentilerindeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na neden olan en \u00f6nemli bask\u0131 unsuru olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen opsiyon (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir. CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) son bir ayda y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek belirgin bir hareket beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve fiyattan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 fiyatlardan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u0130ran\u2019la gerilimin sertle\u015fmesi ya da beklenenden \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) bir Fed mesaj\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131 mevcut banttan \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
1970\u2019lerin sonundaki petrol \u015fokunu and\u0131ran bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama bir yandan alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131r\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan daha sert para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma) zorlad\u0131. Tarihsel olarak jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli y\u00fckseli\u015fler yaratsa da Fed\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zaman i\u00e7inde bask\u0131n gelerek alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yatayla\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Fed\u2019in ad\u0131mlar\u0131 en kritik izlenecek unsur olmaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: Alt\u0131n 4.535 dolara inerken \u0130ran gerilimi petrol\u00fc 115 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, enflasyon alevlendi. Fed\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %75; y\u00fcksek faiz alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor, opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46835\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}