Japonya\u2019ya ili\u015fkin CFTC (ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu) verileri, JPY (Japon Yeni) vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde ticari olmayanlar\u0131n (spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin) net pozisyonunun -75,1 bin seviyesine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nem -61,7 bindi.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fim 13,4 bin s\u00f6zle\u015fmelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Net pozisyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif; yani \u201cnet k\u0131sa\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan) tarafta.<\/p>\n
Son raporlama d\u00f6neminde spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler Yen\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131: net k\u0131sa miktar\u0131 %20\u2019den fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana Yen\u2019deki en olumsuz (ay\u0131) spek\u00fclat\u00f6r duru\u015fu. Veriler, Yen\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir beklentiye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ana neden, Japonya ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131. Fed faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,0 seviyesinde tutarken Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi %0,25 d\u00fczeyinde. Bu fark, Yen sat\u0131p dolar almaya y\u00f6nelik \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanma) cazibesini y\u00fcksek tutuyor. ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek hizmet enflasyonunun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak, hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 da Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirmeyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloyu Japonya\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de destekliyor: 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH (bir ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) yatay geldi ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en ay \u00fclke geneli T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %1,9 ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hedefinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu da bankan\u0131n ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) gitmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, Yen\u2019in zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 senaryosunu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ivme ile USD\/JPY paritesinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; kur y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak avantajl\u0131 bir strateji gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu y\u00f6ntem, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon \u00fccreti) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. 162 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi kur seviyesi) hedeflenerek 2025 sonundaki zirvelerin yeniden test edilmesi beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ancak dolar 165 Yen seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, devlet m\u00fcdahalesi riski nedeniyle \u00e7ok dikkatli olmak gerekir. 2024\u2019teki b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahaleler hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131\u201d kur hareketlerine tolerans\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu biliniyor. Bu tehdit, Yen vadeli i\u015flemlerinde do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 daha riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc m\u00fcdahale durumunda sert ve ani ters hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen\u2019de ay\u0131lar\u0131n i\u015ftah\u0131 kabard\u0131: CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net JPY pozisyonu -75,1 bine indi; net k\u0131sa %20+ b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Faiz fark\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019yi 162+ hedeflerken 165\u2019te m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46822\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}