UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, Malezya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek **GSYH**\u2019sinin (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,4 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Art\u0131\u015f beklentilerin biraz \u00fczerinde olsa da 2025 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha yava\u015f. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca destek, i\u00e7 talep (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firket harcamalar\u0131) ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden geldi.<\/p>\n
Kurum, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n 11. haftas\u0131na girmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla d\u0131\u015f risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bu ko\u015fullar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri y\u00fckseltti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
UOB, 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %4,5\u2019te tuttu. Bank Negara Malaysia\u2019n\u0131n (BNM, Malezya Merkez Bankas\u0131) 2026 i\u00e7in %4,0\u2013%5,0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki tahminine at\u0131f yapt\u0131 ve 2025 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %5,2 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
UOB, BNM\u2019nin **Gecelik Politika Faizi**ni (bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi) %2,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 bir \u201cpolitika ayar\u0131\u201d (faiz ve likidite duru\u015funda de\u011fi\u015fiklik) i\u00e7in 2\u20133 ay bekleyebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
UOB\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde, etkilenen haneler ve \u015firketleri desteklemeye y\u00f6nelik hedefli devlet ad\u0131mlar\u0131 da yer ald\u0131. Ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re ek ad\u0131mlar\u0131n gelebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %5,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme man\u015fette g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de riskler art\u0131yor. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u201ckar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u201d (b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zorlayan olumsuz etki) yarat\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalarda dalgalanma art\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik y\u00fcksekken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ckoruma\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ile FBM KLCI endeksi veya ihracata duyarl\u0131 hisselerde portf\u00f6y\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigortalamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. **CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX)** (piyasa korkusunu\/oynakl\u0131k beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) son bir ayda %15 y\u00fckseldi; bu da k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
BNM\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2\u20133 ayda daha net veri g\u00f6rmeyi beklerken faizi %2,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli istikrar, **faiz t\u00fcrevleri**nde (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201cfaizler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131r\u201d beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon alma fikrini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin **swap** (taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi anla\u015fma) ile sabit\/de\u011fi\u015fken faiz ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fczerinden faizlerin yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131 senaryoya g\u00f6re i\u015flem kurulabilir. 2014 petrol fiyat\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde de benzer bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemi ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, ekonomik etki netle\u015fince daha belirgin ad\u0131mlar gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Malezya ringgit\u2019inin dalgal\u0131 seyretmesi olas\u0131. \u00dclkenin net petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 destekleyici olurken, k\u00fcresel ticaretteki aksama bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Ge\u00e7en hafta **Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri**nin (ileride teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 belirlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle USD\/MYR kurunda keskin ama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor hareketler beklenebilir. **D\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131** ile **straddle** (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanma) kurmak, ringgit\u2019in y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde dalgalanmaya oynama y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki %5,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fcksek bir baz olu\u015fturdu; 2026 i\u00e7in %4,5 tahmin zaten yava\u015flamay\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Bu nedenle **FBM KLCI vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (FKLI)** (endeks \u00fczerinden kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem imk\u00e2n\u0131 veren vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadeli, taktik i\u015flemlerde de\u011ferlendirilebilir; uzun vadeli tek y\u00f6ne \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck bahis\u201d yerine, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k rotalar\u0131 ve tedarik zinciri verilerine (mal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve teslimat s\u00fcreleri) ili\u015fkin haberlere h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki vermek daha etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Devletin hedefli destekleri var; ancak d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar daha da bozulursa bunlar yetersiz kalabilir. Nisan enflasyon verisiyle **T\u00dcFE (CPI)** (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u00f6nceden\u201d faiz indirimine gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bu ortamda **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle** (opsiyon, vadeli, swap gibi) riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak ve sermayeyi korumak \u00f6ncelik kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Vitrindeki %5,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye kanmay\u0131n: Malezya\u2019da 2026 1\u00c7 GSYH i\u00e7 talep ve hizmetlerle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ancak Ortado\u011fu krizi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; UOB %4,5, BNM faizi %2,75\u2019te bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46815\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}