Son ABD-\u00c7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri taraflar\u0131n ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6zetlerle sona erdi ve piyasalar net bir ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u0130ki taraf da i\u015f birli\u011fine a\u00e7\u0131k bir dil kulland\u0131; \u201cYap\u0131c\u0131 Stratejik \u0130stikrar \u0130li\u015fkisi\u201dne ve \u201cTukididis Tuza\u011f\u0131\u201dndan (y\u00fckselen bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn yerle\u015fik g\u00fcc\u00fc \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fcklemesi riski) ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya at\u0131f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD, Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping\u2019i eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir devlet ziyareti i\u00e7in davet etti. Piyasalar; ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinde olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri, ileri seviye yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in nadir toprak elementleri (y\u00fcksek teknoloji \u00fcretiminde kritik ham maddeler) ihracat kontrollerini izliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131 y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %14,5 artt\u0131. ASEAN\u2019a (G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya \u00dclkeleri Birli\u011fi) ve AB\u2019ye sevkiyatlar yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019ye ihracat y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %10,9 geriledi ve ABD, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131 konumunda. ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131, toplam ihracata yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,1 katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat ve sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 anla\u015fmalar, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dair beklentileri destekliyor. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadeye k\u0131yasla uzun vadeli \u00c7in devlet tahvili getirilerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. (Tahvil getirisi, tahvilin piyasada sundu\u011fu faiz oran\u0131; y\u00fckselmesi genelde tahvil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle olur.)<\/p>\n
\u0130hracat performans\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da destekleyebilir. Bu da i\u00e7 ekonomideki mevcut toparlanma ivmesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u00c7in ili\u015fkilerinde daha yap\u0131c\u0131 bir ton g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik piyasa beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6zlenen olumlu diplomatik zeminin \u00fczerine in\u015fa ediliyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin verilerde \u00c7in GSYH\u2019sinin (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) beklentileri a\u015farak %5,1 artmas\u0131, bu iyile\u015fen tabloyu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00c7in Yuan\u0131\u2019ndan (CNY) faydalanacak pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 CNY \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131; risk s\u0131n\u0131rlama sa\u011flar) almak, olas\u0131 de\u011ferlenmeden yararlan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlaman\u0131n bir yolu. USD\/CNY kurunun son d\u00f6nemde 7,18 civar\u0131nda dengelenmesiyle, diplomaside bir at\u0131l\u0131m kurun daha da gerilemesini (yuan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini) kolayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda da t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; ABD g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinde olas\u0131 bir gev\u015feme, \u00c7inli imalat\u00e7\u0131lar ve teknoloji \u015firketlerine do\u011frudan destek olur. FTSE China A50 gibi endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; zira Nisan 2026\u2019da \u00c7in ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %11 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasa beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Geri kalan zay\u0131f halka olan ABD\u2019ye sevkiyatlar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131, ilave ve belirgin bir katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalarda g\u00f6zler ABD-\u00c7in\u2019de: Taraflar yap\u0131c\u0131 mesajlar verdi, \u015ei\u2019ye davet geldi. Tarifeler, \u00e7ip k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131, nadir topraklar izleniyor. \u0130hracat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; yuan ve China A50 t\u00fcrevleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46814\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}