ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 8 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karak be\u015f haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 99,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Endeks, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, yeni enflasyon verileri ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 gerilimle desteklenerek son \u00fc\u00e7 haftadaki ilk haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicilerin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) ve \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE\/PPI: \u00fcreticilerin maliyet ve sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) verileri, Nisan\u2019da enflasyonun \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ay h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilime ba\u011fl\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131na bakarak Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131na olas\u0131l\u0131k hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisi (getiri\/faiz: tahvilin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya sundu\u011fu y\u0131ll\u0131k kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131) bir y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyretti ve dolar\u0131 destekledi. Para birimi, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping\u2019in ticaret ve yat\u0131r\u0131m konular\u0131n\u0131 ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin ard\u0131ndan da g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6stergelerde (grafik verilerinden t\u00fcretilen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler), 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama: son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat ortalamas\u0131) 99,00 civar\u0131nda, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 98,48 civar\u0131nda; ayr\u0131ca 97,75 yak\u0131n\u0131nda ek destek g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. RSI (14) (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 58,67 seviyesinde, MACD (hareketli ortalamalar yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama: momentum e\u011filimini izleyen g\u00f6sterge) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 100,00, ard\u0131ndan 100,50 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131), fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve tam istihdam\u0131 hedefler; enflasyon hedefi %2\u2019dir ve y\u0131lda sekiz kez politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 yapar. QE (niceliksel gev\u015feme: tahvil al\u0131m\u0131yla piyasaya para vererek faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme politikas\u0131) dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir; QT (niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma: bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek piyasadan para \u00e7ekme) ise dolar\u0131 destekleme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 enflasyon verisi, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,8 ile %3,6 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, piyasada (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k) Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapma ihtimalini y\u00fckseltti. CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %15\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011findeki 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %4,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131karak d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131 ve dolar\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 daha cazip hale getirdi. Bu temel destek, Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 105,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki ticaret gerilimi s\u00fcrerken dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) talebi de devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu, dolar\u0131n olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fine kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken riski opsiyon primiyle (prim: opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bu opsiyonlar, dolar vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (futures: ileri tarihte alma-satma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) veya dolar\u0131 izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinde olabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP).<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, dolardaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerinde zay\u0131flama anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Euro\u2019da sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) (EUR\/USD \u00fczerinden) veya Japon Yeni\u2019nde USD\/JPY al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerini de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u0130ngiliz Sterlini ya da Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerinde vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme satmak da dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne do\u011frudan pozisyon alma y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n
Artan getiriler ve jeopolitik belirsizlik nedeniyle piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir. Opsiyonlarla mevcut portf\u00f6yleri kur hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korumak (hedge: olumsuz riski azaltmak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur. \u00d6rne\u011fin, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 geliri y\u00fcksek \u015firketler, d\u00f6viz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 yabanc\u0131 para sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u00f6viz putlar\u0131 alarak k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak isteyebilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY be\u015f haftan\u0131n zirvesinde: tahvil getirileri, h\u0131zlanan enflasyon ve jeopolitik riskler dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Fed\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselirken opsiyon piyasas\u0131 dolar al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcne kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46812\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}