ING ekonomistleri, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank Indonesia, BI) bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha s\u0131k\u0131 (faizi art\u0131rmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck) bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7mesini bekliyor. Bu hafta politika faizinde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ana hedef kur istikrar\u0131 (para biriminin sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak).<\/p>\n
BI\u2019nin son toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana Endonezya rupisi (IDR) %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu, BI\u2019nin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ederek (dolar al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla) para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi beklentileri \u00f6telendi. Bu durum, Endonezya ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) IDR aleyhine olacak \u015fekilde a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
IDR\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 16.450 seviyesinin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte, BI\u2019den olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kur istikrar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu ad\u0131m daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasa, yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da en az 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar fiyatlara bu beklentiyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor).<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in politika faizini %4,75-5,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutmas\u0131, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 Endonezya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip olmaktan uzak b\u0131rakarak rupiye bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Bu ortam, normalde para birimini destekleyecek yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015flerini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Son \u00e7eyrekte tahvil piyasas\u0131nda 1,2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde net yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n net sat\u0131\u015f yaparak piyasadan para \u00e7ekmesi) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, IDR\u2019deki olas\u0131 ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar) talep art\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/IDR call opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme). Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayr\u0131ca, k\u0131sa vadeli Endonezya faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesine y\u00f6nelik faiz swaplar\u0131 (taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00fczerinden pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) son bir ayda %8 artt\u0131; bu da piyasadaki beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa hareketine benzetiliyor. O d\u00f6nemde rupideki benzer de\u011fer kayb\u0131, BI\u2019nin s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesine ve kurun ge\u00e7ici olarak dengelenmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kur istikrar\u0131 hedefi bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi\u011finde h\u0131zl\u0131 ad\u0131m atabildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupide sertle\u015fen bask\u0131 sonras\u0131 g\u00f6zler BI\u2019de: ING, kur istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu hafta 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faizi fark\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131; \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ve t\u00fcrev talebi artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46811","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46811"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46811\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46811"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46811"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46811"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}