GBP\/USD d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de geriledi ve haftay\u0131 %2\u2019den fazla kay\u0131pla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Parite 1,3343 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye 8 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131, gelecekteki bir ba\u015fbakan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (devletin gelirinden fazla harcama yapmas\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fctebilece\u011fi beklentileriyle sterlini bask\u0131lad\u0131. Sa\u011fl\u0131k Bakan\u0131 Wes Streeting istifa etti. Reuters, bir \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi milletvekilinin koltu\u011fundan \u00e7ekilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, Andy Burnham\u2019a olas\u0131 bir liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir yol teklif edildi\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019dan memnun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201c\u00e7ok daha fazla sabretmeyece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f artt\u0131. WTI %2,39\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,29\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; %0,39 artt\u0131. (WTI: ABD tipi ham petrol. Dolar Endeksi: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks.)<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f enflasyon endi\u015felerini (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131) besledi ve k\u00fcresel tahvil faizlerini (devlet bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n getirisi) yukar\u0131 itti. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re, 2026 sonuna kadar ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50 olarak hesapland\u0131. (\u0130ma edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k: piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen ihtimal.)<\/p>\n
ABD Sanayi \u00dcretimi nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,7 artt\u0131; %0,3 beklentisinin ve marttaki -%0,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geldi. Gelecek hafta \u0130ngiltere\u2019de istihdam, enflasyon, \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI\u2019lar ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) yetkilileri konu\u015facak. ABD\u2019de ise konut ve istihdam verileri ile Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 izlenecek. (\u00d6nc\u00fc PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/ daralmaya dair erken sinyal veren anket g\u00f6stergesi.)<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD 1,3320 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) bulundu\u011fu 1,3430\u2019un alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RSI (14) 37 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. (RSI: g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; fiyat momentumunu \u00f6l\u00e7er. 14: 14 d\u00f6nemlik hesap.) Diren\u00e7 1,3430\u2019da, ard\u0131ndan 1,3616\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde sterlinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir sinyal g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi belirsizlik ile ABD ekonomisinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenme alg\u0131s\u0131, paritede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekleyen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bile\u015fim olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130ki ekonomi aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma (farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerde performans) ana tema haline geliyor.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fbakan Starmer\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131 bir liderlik hamlesi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019deki b\u00fct\u00e7e planlar\u0131na verilen piyasa tepkisini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde sterlin sert d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasalar, olas\u0131 bir halefin b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak politikalar izleyebilece\u011finden endi\u015fe ediyor; bu genelde para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131r. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, BoE\u2019nin ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in faiz indirme alan\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda dolar g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi, 2025 sonuna kadar g\u00f6r\u00fclen sa\u011flam i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 e\u011filimiyle birlikte, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019i daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz isteyen) fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015f.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimlerin etkisiyle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Enerjide net ithalat\u00e7\u0131 olan \u0130ngiltere\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri ekonomi \u00fczerinde ek y\u00fck yarat\u0131r ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve ABD\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek faiz ihtimali, dolar\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, GBP\/USD\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert hareket etmesi) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini destekliyor; parite 1,3430\u2019daki kritik diren\u00e7 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu b\u00f6lgeye do\u011fru olas\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanmalar, trend de\u011fi\u015fimi de\u011fil sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Put opsiyonu: belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131.) Bu y\u00f6ntem, riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlarken sterlin 1,3200\u2019e do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse \u00f6nemli getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme, vadesi haziran sonu veya temmuz olan put\u2019lar\u0131 i\u015flevsel k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Daha temkinli, \u201czaman de\u011feri erimesi\u201dnden (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin azalmas\u0131) yararlanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in ay\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019i (bear call spread) de uygulanabilir. (Bear call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call alarak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji.) 1,3430 direnci civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131p, korunma i\u00e7in daha yukar\u0131da ve \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re hemen kullan\u0131labilir olmayan) bir call almak, GBP\/USD bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu pozisyon, sterlin d\u00fc\u015ferse, yatay kal\u0131rsa veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselse bile\u20141,3430\u2019un alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece\u2014\u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlinde alarm: GBP\/USD d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnd\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, 1,33\u2019te. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi karga\u015fa sterlini bask\u0131larken dolar, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ve y\u00fckselen petrol\u00fcn besledi\u011fi \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; 1,3430 alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir, 1,3200 hedefleniyor. Opsiyon stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46808"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46808\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}