Rusya\u2019n\u0131n t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE), nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,14 artt\u0131. Bu sonu\u00e7, beklenen %0,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edilenden daha yava\u015f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE verilerine dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Nisan i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan ayl\u0131k %0,14\u2019l\u00fck enflasyon, izlenen %0,3 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda geldi. Bu s\u00fcrpriz, Rusya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (y\u00fcksek faizle talebi azaltma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) ekonomiyi beklenenden fazla so\u011futuyor olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, y\u00fcksek faizlerden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (faiz indirimi d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ge\u00e7i\u015f) i\u00e7in takvimin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekebilir.<\/p>\n
Politika faizi (ana faiz) k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 seviyede %16\u2019da kal\u0131rken, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon verisi ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz swap piyasas\u0131na (faiz oran\u0131 beklentilerinin i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 takas piyasas\u0131) bakmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli; piyasa art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bitmeden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor. 2025\u2019te \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimli) s\u00fcrprizler k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerini tekrar tekrar yukar\u0131 itmi\u015fti; ancak bu veri, beklentilerde net bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentilerindeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim ruble \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Yuan veya dolar gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (getiri fark\u0131) cazibesinin azalmas\u0131, RUB\u2019u 95 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviyesinden zay\u0131flatabilir. USD\/RUB i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ya da vadeli i\u015flem (ileride belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) ile y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 100 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 harekete pozisyon almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon, devlet tahvilleri i\u00e7in olumlu bir sinyal. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k OFZ\u2019lerde (Rusya devlet tahvili) getirilerin (faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 da bunu destekliyor. Bu durum, OFZ vadeli i\u015flemlerinde f\u0131rsat yaratabilir; piyasa gelecekteki faiz indirimlerini tam olarak fiyatlamaya ba\u015flarsa tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (getiriler d\u00fc\u015ferken fiyat y\u00fckselir) artmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. Ge\u00e7en haftaki devlet tahvili ihalesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep de sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymetlere (faizi \u00f6nceden bilinen bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz Rusya enflasyonunda: Nisan T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,14 ile %0,3 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda. Bu, %16 faizle s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n etkisini art\u0131r\u0131yor; swaplar erken indirim fiyatl\u0131yor, rublede bask\u0131, OFZ tahviller i\u00e7in destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46806\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}