TD Securities analistleri, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla eyl\u00fcl sonuna kadar g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nde (Labour) liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da haziran sonu ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Yar\u0131\u015fla an\u0131lan isimler aras\u0131nda Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner ve Ed Miliband yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Analistler, Labour\u2019un zamanla daha \u201csola\u201d (devletin ekonomide daha fazla rol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, sosyal harcamalar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131) bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Buna g\u00f6re kamu harcamalar\u0131 ve vergiler artabilir; ancak yine de partinin \u201cmali kurallar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan bor\u00e7\/gelir ve a\u00e7\u0131k hedefleri) bir t\u00fcr\u00fc korunabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca savunma harcamalar\u0131 bu kurallar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutulursa bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n (devletin piyasadan daha fazla bor\u00e7 almas\u0131n\u0131n) artabilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar. Starmer ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Maliye Bakan\u0131 Rachel Reeves\u2019in de de\u011fi\u015fmesini bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Labour\u2019un mevcut \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun 165 sandalye oldu\u011funu, bunun da partiyi Parlamento\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyorlar. Bu nedenle erken genel se\u00e7imin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
En erken 2028\u2019den \u00f6nce se\u00e7im beklemiyorlar. 2026 veya 2027\u2019de se\u00e7im olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar; 2028\u2019in ise anket ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyorlar.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131, yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylemine ilk tepki veren alan oldu. Liderlik de\u011fi\u015fiminin ard\u0131ndan, \u0130ngiltere 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u201cgilt\u201d (\u0130ngiliz devlet tahvili) faizleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,9\u2019dan %4,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasa, daha y\u00fcksek harcama ve bor\u00e7lanma riskini fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6nceki maliye bakan\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 mali kurallar\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fma beklentisinin do\u011frudan sonucu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Siyasi kayma, sterlin \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. GBP\/USD kuru, 2025 ortas\u0131nda 1,29\u2019un \u00fczerindeyken 1,23 civar\u0131na geriledi; uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130ngiltere i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir \u201crisk primi\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclke riskine kar\u015f\u0131 talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) fiyatl\u0131yor. Vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve daha m\u00fcdahaleci bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet, para birimi i\u00e7in olumsuz unsur olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in ana mesaj, \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201dtaki (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f. Sterlin \u201copsiyon\u201dlar\u0131nda (belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) oynakl\u0131k ge\u00e7en sonbahardan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 artt\u0131. FTSE 100 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da y\u00fcksek; bu durum, gelecekte \u015firket vergisi ve sermaye kazanc\u0131 vergisi politikalar\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u201chedging\u201d (riskten korunma) ve fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanan pozisyonlar\u0131n g\u00fcndemde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Londra\u2019da siyasi deprem: TD\u2019ye g\u00f6re Starmer eyl\u00fcle kadar gidebilir, Labour\u2019da haziranda yar\u0131\u015f ba\u015flar. Daha sol \u00e7izgi harcama\/bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir; tahvil faizi %4,4+, sterlin 1,23; volatilite y\u00fckseli\u015fte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46804\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}