TLT, uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvillerini izleyen borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren bir fondur (ETF). Fiyat\u0131 genelde faiz beklentileri ve tahvil piyasas\u0131ndaki ko\u015fullarla birlikte hareket eder.<\/p>\n
2020\u2019deki zirveden bu yana TLT, Elliott Dalga analizine g\u00f6re be\u015f dalgal\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f izledi. Elliott Dalga, piyasa hareketlerini tekrar eden \u201cdalga\u201d yap\u0131lar\u0131yla yorumlayan bir teknik analiz y\u00f6ntemidir. Bu yap\u0131, d\u00f6nem boyunca faizlerin (tahvil getirilerinin) y\u00fckselmesiyle uyumlu \u015fekilde, uzun vadeli tahvillerde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret eder. (Tahvil getirisi\/yield, tahvil fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e y\u00fckselen orand\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
2024\u2019ten beri fiyat hareketi, \u201cd\u00fczeltme\u201d denilen yatay bir evreye ge\u00e7ti. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u201cIV. dalga\u201d s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olarak etiketleniyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskinin bask\u0131n oldu\u011fu \u201cay\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7genini\u201d and\u0131r\u0131yor ve i\u015flem band\u0131 giderek daral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede bir sonraki hamle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar ya da aylarda \u201cV. dalga\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olabilir. Bu da 2020 zirvelerinden ba\u015flayan geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc tamamlar.<\/p>\n
Analizimize g\u00f6re, TLT\u2019de 2024\u2019ten bu yana s\u00fcren uzun s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma, bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f baca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201cmola\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc veriyor. Bu yap\u0131, uzun vadeli tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Beklenen V. dalga d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, fiyatlar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde gerilemesi ve buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimi beklentisini zay\u0131flatan veriler de destekliyor. Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi enflasyonun %3,8 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, son istihdam raporu 215 bin yeni istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti. 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer \u015fekilde inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun tahvillerde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi engelledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu e\u011filimin devam etti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu durum, TLT\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Do\u011frudan y\u00f6ntemlerden biri, vadesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda olan (\u00f6rne\u011fin Temmuz veya A\u011fustos 2026) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu, belirli bir fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 verir; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mda risk, \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonun maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) k\u0131r\u0131lma \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckselebilece\u011finden, \u201cay\u0131 put spreadi\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu stratejide daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) bir put al\u0131n\u0131r ve ayn\u0131 anda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put sat\u0131l\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece ilk maliyet d\u00fc\u015fer. Kar ve zarar \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 ba\u015ftan bellidir; daha az sermayeyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini ifade etmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca teyit i\u00e7in kritik getiri seviyeleri izleniyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi yeniden %4,75 diren\u00e7 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7, fiyat\/getirinin daha \u00f6nce a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgedir. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bu b\u00f6lge k\u0131r\u0131lamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, TLT\u2019de beklenen sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
TLT\u2019de 2020\u2019den beri Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re be\u015fli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; 2024\u2019ten bu yana IV. dalga s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ay\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7genini and\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u0131r\u0131lma gelirse V. dalga sert sat\u0131\u015f, getirilerde y\u00fckseli\u015f; put\/ay\u0131 spread g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46803\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}