Kolombiya\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar martta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %13,4 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, %10,1\u2019lik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan veri, beklentiyi 3,3 puan a\u015ft\u0131. Veride mart ay\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Marttaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi (%13,4 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f), t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bekledi\u011fimizden daha sa\u011flam oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan gelen bu toparlanma, ekonomideki temel dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle Kolombiya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Banco de la Rep\u00fablica) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131larda faiz indirimine daha az istekli olabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 (piyasada olu\u015fan beklentiye g\u00f6re varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fekillenmesi) bu y\u0131l ek faiz indirimlerine i\u015faret ediyordu; ancak bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ciddi bi\u00e7imde zorluyor. Kolombiya IBR swaplar\u0131nda (IBR: Kolombiya bankalararas\u0131 referans faizi; swap: iki taraf\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015f toku\u015f etti\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u201csabit faiz \u00f6demek\u201d (de\u011fi\u015fken faizi al\u0131p sabiti \u00f6demek; faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) taraf\u0131nda f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc parasal gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi gibi, ekonomiyi destekleyen para politikas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131) beklentilerinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na \u00f6telenmesi olas\u0131. Nisan enflasyonu %5,8 ile (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in politika faizinin (%7,5) daha uzun s\u00fcre korunmas\u0131 ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) bir merkez bankas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Kolombiya pesosuna destek verebilir. USD\/COP kurunda (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kolombiya pesosu) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) bak\u0131yoruz; kur \u015fu s\u0131ralar 3.950 civar\u0131nda. 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda pesoda g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) ve de\u011fer kayb\u0131 hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) peso g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri piyasay\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015feye yat\u0131rd\u0131: Kolombiya\u2019da mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %13,4 artarak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Bu, faiz indirimlerini geciktirebilir; IBR swap ve peso lehine pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46802\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}