\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2026 GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la, bir ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini %1,2\u2019den %0,8\u2019e geriledi. ABD\u2019nin 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini de 0,4 y\u00fczde puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; %2,5\u2019ten %2,1\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha y\u00fcksek enflasyona (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyi) kar\u015f\u0131 en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. K\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 ise b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131flarsa faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatabilir veya durdurabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 96\u2013101 band\u0131nda seyretti. EUR\/USD (euro\/dolar paritesi, 1 euronun ka\u00e7 dolar etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterir) 1,14\u20131,21 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket etti.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019in 2026 sonu \u201ckonsens\u00fcs\u201d (piyasa genel beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131) tahminleri DXY i\u00e7in 96,7, EUR\/USD i\u00e7in 1,20 ve GBP\/USD (sterlin\/dolar paritesi) i\u00e7in 1,35 seviyesinde. Societe Generale\u2019in 2026 sonu tahminleri ise DXY i\u00e7in 98,6, EUR\/USD i\u00e7in 1,16 ve GBP\/USD i\u00e7in 1,32.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi\u011fini ve %0,8\u2019e indi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son veriler de bunu destekliyor: Eurostat\u2019\u0131n (AB istatistik kurumu) \u00f6nc\u00fc 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi yaln\u0131zca %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ederken, Almanya IFO \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 G\u00fcven Endeksi (\u015firketlerin beklentilerini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket bazl\u0131 g\u00f6sterge) Nisan 2026\u2019da 12 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Ekonomik performanstaki bu a\u00e7\u0131lan fark, euronun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha zay\u0131f seyredebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutsa da, ekonomide yava\u015flama belirginle\u015ftik\u00e7e bu duru\u015fun zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Man\u015fet enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da dahil genel enflasyon) 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelerden gerileme sinyali verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n ECB\u2019nin \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u201dy\u0131 (para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 hale getirme, genelde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme iste\u011fini abart\u0131l\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l sonu EUR\/USD tahminimiz 1,16; bu seviye piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fc olan 1,20\u2019nin belirgin alt\u0131nda. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu, euronun zay\u0131flamas\u0131na \u201cpozisyon almak\u201d (beklentiye uygun i\u015flem yapmak) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan; 1,17 veya 1,16 \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131\u201d (i\u015flemin devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) put opsiyonlar\u0131 (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almay\u0131 ve vadesi yaz sonuna denk gelen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri hedeflemeyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca 1,20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (\u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re devreye girmesi zor) call spread (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayan, iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji) satmak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi senaryoda temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 96\u2013101 band\u0131nda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla yatay seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. ABD ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, dolar\u0131 bu eski band\u0131n \u00fcst taraf\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek bir tetikleyici olabilir. DXY\u2019nin y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru 98,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz, dolar\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u0131cak geli\u015fme: \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %0,8\u2019e, ABD\u2019ninkini %2,1\u2019e \u00e7ekti. ECB faiz art\u0131rsa da zay\u0131flama bekleniyor; EUR\/USD 1,16, DXY 98,6 hedefi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46801\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}