AUD\/USD paritesi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7155 civar\u0131na gerileyerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,91 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bir haftadan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) genel g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle parite ikinci g\u00fcnde de sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 izleyece\u011fi beklentisini art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00dcFE (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcretici maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %6 artt\u0131. Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar (t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) ayl\u0131k %0,5 y\u00fckseldi. Sanayi \u00dcretimi (fabrika ve \u00fcretim \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) ise Nisan\u2019da %0,3 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %0,7 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler verilerinden Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair piyasa olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %15\u2019in alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri (uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi) yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran m\u00fczakereleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131klara (belirsizlikte daha \u00e7ok talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131klar) talebi destekledi. Trump\u2013Xi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesine dair olumlu haberler AUD\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verirken, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) \u015fahin duru\u015fu (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yak\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fi dengelemeye yetmedi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan beklenenden y\u00fcksek ABD enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 parite 0,6550 civar\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. Nisan 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE verisi %3,9 ile beklentilerin belirgin \u00fczerinde gelerek fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na dair beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasa bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti; birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce bu oran %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim ABD tahvil faizlerini yukar\u0131 iterken dolar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel belirsizlik de dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman para birimi\u201d olarak destek bulmas\u0131na katk\u0131 veriyor. G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki artan gerilim, tedarik zincirinde (\u00fcretimden teslimata uzanan s\u00fcre\u00e7) aksama riskleri nedeniyle piyasada temkinli havay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d ortam\u0131, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi risk i\u015ftah\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 para birimleri yerine ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta RBA da \u015fahin tonunu koruyor; bu, AUD i\u00e7in bir miktar destek anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Ancak mevcut tabloda bu destek, ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ivmeyi k\u0131rmaya yetmiyor. RBA\u2019n\u0131n duru\u015fu, yak\u0131n vadede AUD\/USD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirmekten \u00e7ok yava\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ko\u015fullarda AUD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon) almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi halinde getiri sa\u011flayabilir. AUD\/USD vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonu a\u00e7mak da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan bir pozisyon alma y\u00f6ntemidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sert esti: AUD\/USD 0,7155\u2019e gerileyip haftan\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Y\u00fcksek ABD enflasyonu, y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri ve Fed\u2019de \u015fahinle\u015fme beklentisi riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131rarak pariteyi bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46798\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}