Japonya\u2019n\u0131n **\u00f6nc\u00fc 1\u00c7 GSYH** verisi ile **Nisan d\u0131\u015f ticaret** ve **enflasyon** verileri bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. GSYH\u2019nin **\u00e7eyreklik bazda y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f** (QoQ saar: bir \u00e7eyreklik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) **%1,8** gelmesi, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki **%1,3** seviyesine g\u00f6re y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u0131l geneli i\u00e7in **%0,5** b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini koruyor.<\/p>\n
1\u00c7\u2019de **ihracat** g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu ve **sanayi \u00fcretimi** artt\u0131. Bu tablo, **yapay zek\u00e2 (AI: veri i\u015fleyerek tahmin\/karar \u00fcreten yaz\u0131l\u0131m sistemleri)** talebi ve artan **yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip)** ihracat\u0131yla desteklendi. **\u015eirket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131** da y\u00fckseldi; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi yapay zek\u00e2 ve \u00e7ip alan\u0131na y\u00f6nelik **sermaye harcamalar\u0131** (CAPEX: makine, ekipman, fabrika gibi uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131) oldu.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcketim** taraf\u0131 daha zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 1\u00c7\u2019de **perakende sat\u0131\u015flar** artt\u0131; buna yabanc\u0131 ziyaret\u00e7ilerin harcamalar\u0131 da dahil. Ancak BoJ\u2019un **t\u00fcketim faaliyet endeksi** (hanehalk\u0131 harcama e\u011filimini izleyen g\u00f6sterge), yurt i\u00e7i hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131nda daha yava\u015f bir seyre i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan **d\u0131\u015f ticaret** verisinin, ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015flarken ithalat y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in yeniden **d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na** d\u00f6n\u00fclmesini g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, zay\u0131flayan d\u0131\u015f dengeyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor ve **JPY** \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. **D\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin** (kamu otoritesinin kur seviyesini etkilemek i\u00e7in piyasaya al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) etkisinin, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmedik\u00e7e ge\u00e7ici kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan **T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun ana \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc)** verisinin, devletin **enerji s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131** (fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in kamu deste\u011fi) sayesinde y\u0131ll\u0131k **%1,5** d\u00fczeyinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon %1,5\u2019te seyrederken, BoJ\u2019un Haziran\u2019da **faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131** olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor; **25 baz puan** (bp: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 25bp = 0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f beklentisi Temmuz\u2019a kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Japonya ekonomisinin ayakta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak BoJ\u2019u Haziran\u2019da erken bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na zorlayacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Enflasyon \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Temmuz\u2019u beklemesi bekleniyor. Bu gecikme, Japonya ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki **para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131** \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in net bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n daha fazla zay\u0131flama, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi yeniden a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa kayarken, varil ba\u015f\u0131na **85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki WTI ham petrol** (ABD referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) ithalat maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Fed faizi sabit tutarken, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck **faiz getirisi fark\u0131** (yield gap: tahvil\/para piyasas\u0131 getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark) yeni satmay\u0131 cazip bir **ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi**ne (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimiyle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli varl\u0131k almak) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu durum **USD\/JPY** paritesini son d\u00f6nemde **161,50** seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
2024\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: tekrarlanan kamu m\u00fcdahaleleri yene k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131rd\u0131, ancak temel e\u011filim yeniden bask\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda resmi uyar\u0131 veya ad\u0131mla gelen sert bir JPY y\u00fckseli\u015fi sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Haziran BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na vadeli **USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131** (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bu beklentiye g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam Japon hisse senetlerini de destekliyor; \u00f6zellikle **Nikkei 225** endeksini. Daha zay\u0131f yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firketlerinin yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan art\u0131r\u0131r; yapay zek\u00e2 ve \u00e7ip sekt\u00f6rlerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek verir. Nikkei\u2019nin **41.000** seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla, **endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri** (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) bu ivmeye do\u011frudan maruz kalman\u0131n bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler bu hafta Japonya verilerinde: 1\u00c7 GSYH %1,8\u2019e h\u0131zlanabilir, AI-\u00e7ip yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Ancak t\u00fcketim zay\u0131f, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve petrol yen\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor; BoJ haziranda pas, temmuz olas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46797"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46797\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}