ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda (bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) %0,7 artt\u0131. Beklenti %0,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi, ekonominin bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayl\u0131k %0,7 art\u0131\u015f, \u201cyava\u015flama var, yak\u0131nda faiz indirimi gelir\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylardaki para politikas\u0131na (faiz kararlar\u0131na) ili\u015fkin beklentiler g\u00fcncellenmeli.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk etki b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc veri, Fed\u2019in i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle de Nisan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun temel g\u00f6stergesi) %3,1 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) seviyede kalm\u0131\u015fken. Vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131nda (futures: gelecekte belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesi bir faiz indirimi ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizi i\u00e7in piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), Eyl\u00fcl indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken %30\u2019un alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r\u201d temas\u0131ndan faydalanabilecek pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak; faizlerin artmas\u0131yla tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesinden (getiri art\u0131nca tahvil fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fer) yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen basit bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Benzer bir tablo 2023 sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler ilk faiz indirimi beklentisini s\u00fcrekli geciktirmi\u015f, \u201cerken d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d (Fed\u2019in k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede faiz indirimine d\u00f6nmesi) beklentisiyle pozisyon alanlarda kay\u0131plar yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda bu tablo, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerde (ekonomi g\u00fc\u00e7lenince daha iyi performans g\u00f6steren sekt\u00f6rler) g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Sanayi ve temel malzeme ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ile bu beklenmedik \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fcne maruz kal\u0131nabilir. Veri ayr\u0131ca S&P Global ABD \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131 (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyali) destekliyor; endeks 52,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz! ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi Nisan\u2019da %0,7 artarak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; \u201cyak\u0131nda faiz indirimi\u201d hik\u00e2yesi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Fed fonlar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60+\u2019tan %30 alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti. Tahvil bask\u0131s\u0131, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsellere destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46789\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}