S&P 500 uzun bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131, ancak sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla bu hareket art\u0131k k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Video, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin (fiyatlar\u0131n genel olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyri) h\u0131z kaybedebilece\u011fine dair i\u015faretlere odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Uzun s\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girmesiyle daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir geri \u00e7ekilme (fiyatlar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak d\u00fc\u015fmesi) riski ele al\u0131n\u0131yor. Fiyatlar\u0131n kritik seviyeleri koruyup koruyamayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derinle\u015fip derinle\u015fmeyece\u011fi izleniyor.<\/p>\n
2026 May\u0131s\u2019\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girerken S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 6200 seviyesine do\u011fru hamlesi ivme kaybediyor. Bu zirvelerde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, 2025 sonuna kadar izlenen istikrarl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan belirgin bir sapma. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, y\u00fckseli\u015fin hassasla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bir d\u00fczeltmenin (daha belirgin fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc) gecikmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (de\u011feri endeks gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma eklemek veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek i\u00e7in uygun bir d\u00f6nem. SPX veya ilgili ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) put almak (belirli bir vadeye kadar belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rlanman\u0131n en do\u011frudan yolu. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca put pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131mak (bu opsiyonu elde tutmak) uygun bir ortam sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma derecesi) da kritik: VIX 13 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. VIX, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131\/\u201ckorku\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endekstir. Bu durum, 2024\u2019teki sakin d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemlerin ard\u0131ndan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler gelmi\u015f ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha korumac\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmi\u015fti. Piyasada korku art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla VIX\u2019in y\u00fckselmesini bekleyenler, VIX call opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin, ge\u00e7en haftaki T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisinin %3,1 ile biraz y\u00fcksek gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) izleyece\u011fi yola dair soru i\u015faretlerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasa daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine faiz indirimine yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015fu fiyatl\u0131yordu; yeni veri ise sat\u0131c\u0131lara k\u00e2r realizasyonu (k\u00e2r\u0131 nakde \u00e7evirip sat\u0131\u015f yapma) i\u00e7in temel bir gerek\u00e7e sundu. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde enflasyon kaynakl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fe benziyor.<\/p>\n
Put almak d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) bear call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejiler de de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu strateji, iki call opsiyonunu birlikte kullan\u0131r: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call sat\u0131l\u0131r, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131narak risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r; ama\u00e7 prim geliri (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla elde edilen gelir) toplamak ve piyasan\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyelinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcd\u00fcr. Endeks yatay kal\u0131rsa ya da hafif gerilerse, do\u011frudan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015fa (\u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 al\u0131nan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131) k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek ba\u015far\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda 6120 seviyesi izleniyor; bu seviye, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; trend izleme g\u00f6stergesi) denk geliyor ve kritik bir destek b\u00f6lgesi. Bu noktan\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, kontrol\u00fcn sat\u0131c\u0131lara ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret edebilir. Bu da yak\u0131n vadede 6000 psikolojik seviyesine (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zihninde \u00f6nemli e\u015fik) do\u011fru daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S&P 500\u2019de ralli yoruldu: 6200 denemesi ivme kaybederken sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. VIX 13\u2019le d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, riskler b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. 6120 deste\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 6000 g\u00fcndemde; put ve bear spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46786"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46786\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}