USD\/JPY cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 158,55 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,11 y\u00fckseldi ve be\u015finci seans\u0131 da art\u0131da kapatmaya y\u00f6neldi. ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, bunu **ABD tahvil faizlerindeki** (devletin bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131ndan elde edilen getiri) y\u00fckseli\u015f ve **Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131** (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma veya art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) beklentisi destekledi. Bu tablo, Japon yenini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD enflasyon ve ekonomik aktivite verileri, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. **T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; halk\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi)** nisanda y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. **\u00dcFE (PPI: \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi; \u00fcreticinin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim)** y\u0131ll\u0131k %6 artt\u0131. **Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar** (hane halk\u0131 harcamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) ayl\u0131k %0,5 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD **Hazine tahvili faizleri** y\u00fckseldi. **10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi** (uzun vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. **2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi** de yeniden %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak dolar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %15\u2019in alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu beklenti USD\/JPY\u2019yi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler\u2014ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131** ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi\u2014temkinli duru\u015fu canl\u0131 tuttu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Trump\u2013Xi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi baz\u0131 ticaret kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00dcFE\u2019si nisanda y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,9 artt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015fta enerji ve ithalat maliyetleri etkili oldu. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da olas\u0131 **m\u00fcdahale** (yetkililerin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkilemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) beklentisi, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 158,00 \u00fczerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Japon yenine kar\u015f\u0131 yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ve paritenin 161,00\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu hareket, **\u015fahin Fed** (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya\/sert kalmaya daha yatk\u0131n) ile **temkinli Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ)** aras\u0131ndaki farktan besleniyor. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki **faiz fark\u0131** (ABD faizleri daha y\u00fcksek olduk\u00e7a dolar\u0131n daha cazip hale gelmesi) pariteyi yukar\u0131 iten ana unsur olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en ay, Nisan 2026 verileri ABD\u2019de enflasyonun %3,5 ile **inat\u00e7\u0131** kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve istihdam\u0131n 240 binin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bunun sonucu olarak ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yeniden %4,70\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini y\u0131l\u0131n daha ilerisine \u00f6teliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde, May\u0131s 2025\u2019te parite 158,00\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde de beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelen T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclen tablo, 2025\u2019teki harekete benziyor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerden ani bir m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, USD\/JPY **opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine kat\u0131l\u0131rken olas\u0131 zararlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in **uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Ayr\u0131ca **zarar kesimden uzak sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (out-of-the-money put: mevcut kura g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m\u0131 uzak olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde **prim** (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplama stratejisi olabilir.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililer 2024\u2019te bu seviyelerde m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015fti. Ancak etki kal\u0131c\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc temel belirleyici olan faiz fark\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmemi\u015fti. Tarih, m\u00fcdahalenin trendi ger\u00e7ekten tersine \u00e7evirmesi i\u00e7in BoJ\u2019dan bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle desteklenmesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. S\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmadan yen al\u0131m\u0131yla yap\u0131lacak bir operasyon, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla USD\/JPY\u2019de yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in daha iyi bir seviye yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\/yen yeniden r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 arkas\u0131na ald\u0131: ABD tahvil faizleri ve \u015fahin Fed beklentisiyle USD\/JPY 158,55\u2019ten 161 \u00fcst\u00fcne t\u0131rmand\u0131. M\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlasa da faiz fark\u0131 belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46784\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}