ABD tahvil faizleri, \u0130ran ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana sert y\u00fckseldi. Ancak ABD Dolar\u0131 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde de faiz oranlar\u0131 artt\u0131. Bu durum, dolara y\u00f6nelik **g\u00f6reli faiz deste\u011findeki** (ABD faizleri ile di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki farktan gelen destek) de\u011fi\u015fimi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Societe Generale\u2019in 2026 sonu GBP\/USD tahmini, Bloomberg\u2019in piyasa ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Bu da orta vadede sterlinin daha zay\u0131f olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. Banka bunu, \u00f6zellikle **k\u0131sa vadeli ABD tahvil faizlerindeki** (\u00f6r. 2 y\u0131l vadeli devlet tahvilinin faizi) hareketlerin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki de\u011fi\u015fime ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Makaleye g\u00f6re sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana **2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi** (ABD\u2019nin 2 y\u0131l vadeli devlet tahvilinin faizi) %6\u2019dan fazla artt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizlerinin, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerdeki benzer vadeli faizlere g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019in 2026 sonu piyasa ortalamas\u0131 tahminleri: **DXY 96,7**, **EUR\/USD 1,20** ve **GBP\/USD 1,35**. Societe Generale\u2019in 2026 sonu tahminleri: **DXY 98,6**, **EUR\/USD 1,16** ve **GBP\/USD 1,32**.
\n– **DXY**: Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren dolar endeksi.
\n– **EUR\/USD**: Euro\/dolar paritesi.
\n– **GBP\/USD**: Sterlin\/dolar paritesi.<\/p>\n
Faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u0130ran ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fti. Tahvil faizleri k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta y\u00fckselse de, ABD faizlerinin di\u011ferlerini geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131 daha belirgin hale geliyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, orta vadeli d\u00f6viz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyen temel unsur.<\/p>\n
Bu durum verilerde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nisan ay\u0131 ABD enflasyonu %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek geldi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tuttu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu daha istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde geriliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak ABD ile \u0130ngiltere **2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faiz fark\u0131** 150 **baz puan\u0131n** (1 baz puan = %0,01; 150 baz puan = %1,50) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye en son 2025 sonundaki piyasa **yeniden fiyatlama** s\u00fcrecinde (piyasalar\u0131n yeni beklentilere g\u00f6re fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla g\u00fcncellemesi) g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu tablo, sterlin taraf\u0131nda temkinli duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor: dolara kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Banka, 1,32\u2019ye do\u011fru bir hareket i\u00e7in **opsiyonlarla** pozisyon almay\u0131 daha uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin GBP\/USD **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** almak veya **put spread** (maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bir put al\u0131p daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviyeden ba\u015fka bir put satmak) kurgulamak. Bu y\u00f6ntem, beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Bu sadece sterlinle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil; dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc genele yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve DXY i\u00e7in 98,6 tahminiyle uyumlu. Almanya\u2019dan gelen zay\u0131f sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Fed kadar agresif kalmakta daha az alan\u0131 olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde de benzer a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekleniyor; Societe Generale\u2019in 1,16 tahmini, piyasa ortalamas\u0131 olan 1,20\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha negatif.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sava\u015fla birlikte ABD tahvil faizleri s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, dolar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; k\u00fcresel faizler de artt\u0131. SocGen 2026: DXY 98,6; EUR\/USD 1,16; GBP\/USD 1,32\u2014sterlinde y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f, opsiyonla korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46783\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}