TD Securities, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) i\u00e7in tahminini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve 2026\u2019da faiz indirimi beklemedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen kurum, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC: Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 veren kurulu) bir sonraki hamlesinin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 de\u011fil, faiz indirimi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kurum, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; \u201c\u00e7ekirdek\u201d, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonunun 2026 sonunda y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesine ve tedarik zincirlerinin (\u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcretimden t\u00fcketiciye ula\u015fma s\u00fcreci) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor; \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ise \u201ckilitlenmi\u015f\u201d bir durumda oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Kurum, haziran ay\u0131 Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019nin (Fed\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve faiz patikas\u0131 tahminleri) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir y\u00f6ne kayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca haziran FOMC metninde \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filiminin\u201d (faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde sinyal) \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
TD Securities, Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Yine de 2026 boyunca dolar\u0131n kademeli gerileyece\u011fi tahminini koruyor; gerek\u00e7e olarak \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 riskleri ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n duru\u015flar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019da faiz indirmeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksekken, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7 (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar\u0131n faiz beklentilerini buna g\u00f6re ayarlamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti; CME\u2019nin FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131ndan faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalini neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Buna g\u00f6re, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faize oynayan stratejiler\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin aral\u0131k SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizi; Fed faizine yak\u0131n referans) uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine\/ faizin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan pozisyon)\u2014art\u0131k y\u00fcksek risk i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin ana nedeni enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131. Nisan ay\u0131na ait son T\u00dcFE verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,6 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve beklendi\u011fi kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 gerilemedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Benzer bir durum 2023\u2019te de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi diren\u00e7li verilerle bozulmu\u015f ve Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine neden olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 kritik bir ba\u015fl\u0131k olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; komitenin metinden \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimini\u201d resmen kald\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu \u201c\u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u201d, \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) yakla\u015f\u0131k 14 seviyesinde. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Fed\u2019in daha sert diline kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya olas\u0131 sert fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, do\u011frudan \u201cdolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemleri daha az mant\u0131kl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) 106 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek buldu. Ancak di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 da \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilir. Bu ortam\u0131n, bant i\u00e7inde i\u015flem (fiyat\u0131n belirli aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla strateji) veya parite i\u015flemleri (bir para birimini di\u011ferine kar\u015f\u0131 almak\/satmak) i\u00e7in uygun olabilece\u011fi; \u00f6rne\u011fin, daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali veren merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilece\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcren jeopolitik gerilim, bu enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli nedenlerinden biri olarak g\u00f6steriliyor; WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) fiyat\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutuyor ve tedarik zincirlerini zorluyor. Bu durum, mal ve enerji maliyetlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi enflasyon verilerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor. S\u00fcregelen y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan emtia t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (petrol gibi emtialara ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon) bu ortamda \u201cdengeleyici\u201d (hedge: portf\u00f6y riskini azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik i\u015flem) rol oynayabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok tahmin: TD Securities, Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019da faiz indirimi yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131; petrol ve tedarik zinciri bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Haziran FOMC \u015fahinle\u015febilir, volatilite artabilir; dolar zay\u0131flasa da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46777\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}