ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri y\u00fckselirken ve son ekonomik veriler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken artt\u0131. (DXY: Dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks.) Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar beklentilere paralel geldi, Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow modeliyle a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. (Hazine tahvili faizi: Devlet bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n getirisi; GDPNow: Atlanta Fed\u2019in, gelen verilerle b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u201canl\u0131k\u201d tahmin eden modeli.)<\/p>\n
2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi 3,9 baz puan y\u00fckselerek %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, Haziran 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. (Baz puan: %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim.) 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 1,3 baz puan artarak 4,48 ile son 10 ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k %0,5 artt\u0131 ve beklentilere uydu. Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow tahmini, 2. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f) b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %3,7\u2019den %4,0\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol gecelik i\u015flemlerde %1,21 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 107,00 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 3,5 baz puan daha artarak %4,52\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu seviye ge\u00e7en may\u0131stan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey oldu.<\/p>\n
Geriye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 2025\u2019te ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrinin dolar\u0131 destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Diren\u00e7li perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerindeki yukar\u0131 revizyonlar tahvil faizlerini yukar\u0131 itti; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %4,52\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni destekledi. Bu d\u00f6nemde ekonomik ivme belirgindi; y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015feleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya gelindi\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha karma\u015f\u0131k. Enflasyon zirvelerinden gerilese de, Nisan 2026 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er) %3,1 ile beklenenden daha \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu nedenle Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden beklemede kald\u0131. Bu tablo, piyasalar\u0131n daha \u00f6nce yaz aylar\u0131na fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. (Fiyatlamak: Piyasan\u0131n beklentiyi varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tmas\u0131.)<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik, oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Dolar Endeksi 105 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, EUR\/USD gibi d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u00fczerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) stratejisi, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. (Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131: Opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi sabit fiyat.) Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m; beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerle ya da Fed\u2019den beklenmedik \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimine yak\u0131n) bir sinyalle gelebilecek k\u0131r\u0131lmada i\u015fe yarar.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131nda 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,7 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duruyor; bu, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in izleyece\u011fi yola dair karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Burada SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7 verme faizi; vadeli kontrat: ilerideki faiz beklentisini fiyatlayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) gelecekteki politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2027\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ait SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda put (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir) almak, Fed\u2019in faizleri beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski azaltma) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar Endeksi, y\u00fckselen Hazine faizleri ve diren\u00e7li verilerle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4 \u00fcst\u00fcne, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,52\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131, Fed beklemede; belirsizlikte straddle ve SOFR opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46776"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46776\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}